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Bitcoin ETF set to start trading

19 Oct 2021

I expect this will be one of the best ETF debuts ever

Bitcoin ETF poll

Welcome to the BITO era in bitcoin trading.

That’s the ticker for the Bitcoin futures ETF that’s set to debut at the bottom of the hour. I would have loved to see multiple bitcoin ETFs approved at the same time so we could see a horse race and have the market decides. As we saw in Canada, the first out of the gate gets all the volume and the race is pretty much over after that.

The larger question is what it does for price. I ran a poll yesterday:

Bitcoin chart anaysis

I’m torn. I would have liked to see the announcement push bitcoin through the key $64,000 level but at the same time, the flows will come. This opens up US retirement and tax-advantaged accounts to holding bitcoin and that’s a big pile of available capital. It’s a matter of whether short-term traders have front run it.

There’s also the question of the futures vs physical ETF. The Grayscale trust has applied to be a physical ETF so that will be an interesting kink.

On the chart, there’s a nice golden cross unfolding with the 100dma crossing above the 200dma. All else equal, I think the trade is to be cautiously long, at least on Day 1.

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