Bitcoin exhibits a rare pattern, 50% drawdown possible
27 Apr 2022
Bitcoin price is up 0.16% at $40,495.06 on mid-Tuesday trades. It finished, on Monday, above the $40,000 – level after prices went below this level the previous week.
Bitcoin’s 20-week moving averages and 50-week moving averages (WMAs) have both started to slope downwards. While this might seem like a normal occurrence at first glance- this is not the case. This pattern is occurring only for the third time in its history. The previous two occurrences – in late 2014 and late 2018 – led to Bitcoin losing over 50%.
Both the previous occurrences occur during Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles, and while slightly ahead of time, it has now been nearly as long since the 2018 dip that bottomed out at $3,100.
The $40,000 – level will play an essential role in the future prospect of Bitcoin price. If upcoming candles can close above this level, bullish momentum may arise. However, if the price capitulates and falls below the $40,000 – mark, the price could slide down further and take 3-6 months to recover.
On the technical side, the RSI of Bitcoin stood at 45.21 and is currently trading above MA (5) but below MA (20) and MA (50). So, SELL position can be taken with the following target and stop-loss: