Are they related?
What’s driving the latest leg of bitcoin strength?
One theory is that it’s debt ceiling concerns. Fear about the debt ceiling and US default is certainly on the rise. 1-year CDS have risen 22 bps in the past week, though that still prices only a tiny chance of default.
Whatever the reason for bitcoin’s rally to $52,000 from $42,000, the chart tells the story. It’s now bumping up against the September high of $52,948, with less than $300 to go.
A clean break puts the May high of $60,000 square in the sights of bulls while a failure would raise the possibility of a double top and a return to $60,000.
I don’t think there’s any need to complicate the trade here, go where the market tells you and ignore the debt ceiling noise — the US isn’t going to default.