Global Macro Investor & One of Top 3 Global LinkedIn Influencers on Economy and Finance, Mumbai
He is a trend watcher, Global Macro investor and Blogger at worldoutofwhack.com. He has over 20 years of experience in financial markets, bonds, equities, gold, and derivatives. He muses about global macro investment opportunities, economics, business, and financial issues.
Food price inflation keeps going up. Led by grains hitting their fresh multi-year highs on crop worries and low stocks due to strong Chinese demand.
Year-on-year changes: Grains +72%, Softs +50% and livestock +59%.
I believe that we are starting a decade long bull market in “Agricultural Commodities”
Markets at important juncture
This will be bullish for markets
Stay-at-home trade has picked up steam since early March while reopening trade has stalled
Something is changing in the market.
I think it’s the inclusion that the government has to spend more money because the private sector doesn’t do it to create growth. So I think we are seeing a shift from a free market economy to a planning economy. And instead of having a free market resolution to the deflationary side, we get a changing shift in how the economy works. We are moving away from a free market economy to a planning economy where the government share keeps growing.
The government share in the US before these pandemic crisis the lockdown, was about 22 per cent. It is now the upper 30 per cent. In the EU, the average is 59 per cent. So more than half is government. France is 64 per cent. Germany, the best is at 54 per cent. So we are moving into more government type of planning economy. And the bear market and the deflationary collapse you see is freedom.