Crude Oil Reverses Gains, Under Pressure of Persistent Oversupply

Crude oil futures prices reverse lower in European trading session on Monday; paring earlier gains to extend their downward rally to a fourth consecutive day amidst persistent oversupply worries.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in August inched around 0.1 percent lower to trade around $44.20 per barrel in early European trade after surging as high as $44.67 per barrel in Asian trading session.

Markets remained under pressure from rising output in the U.S. and some members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. production rose to nearly 9.34 million barrels a day last week. This was an increase from 9.25 million barrels a day the week prior. Compared to the same period one year ago, production jumped nearly 11%.

Moreover, Baker Hughes Inc. on Friday reported U.S. oil producers added seven more rigs last week. This was a 24th week of increases out of the last 25, which brought the total count up to 763, the most since April 2015.

Meanwhile, according to market sources, Libya’s crude-oil output soared to more than one million barrels a day, up from 400,000 in October. Nigeria’s output was also on a rise, surging to 1.6 million barrels a day, up from 200,000 barrels a day in October.

Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

Crude oil futures prices retested a significant level at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement after having to give up its bearish momentum to reverse higher last Friday. As can be seen from the chart, the short-term MA20 has crossed over the long-term MA50 , confirming the downtrend. RSI continued to point lower while ADX index is witnessing a widening gap between -DI and +DI lines, signalling a breakout and further down moves.

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