. Dollar Down as Bets on Aggressive Fed Interest Rate Hike Recede

Dollar Down as Bets on Aggressive Fed Interest Rate Hike Recede

18 Jul 2022

DOLLAR INDEX is trading down 0.57% at 107.14

The dollar was down on Monday morning in Asia as the euro gasped for gas. Investors’ expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve also receded over strong U.S. core retail sales data.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies edged down 0.20% to 107.84 by 01:44 AM ET (0544 GMT).

The USD/JPY pair fell 0.24% to 138.20.

The AUD/USD pair gained 0.24% to 0.6808, and the NZD/USD pair inched up 0.09% to 0.6165.

The USD/CNY pair edged down 0.17% to 6.7458, while the GBP/USD pair jumped 0.43% to 1.1903.

The Nord Stream 1 pipeline, the biggest pipeline carrying Russian natural gas to Germany, began its annual maintenance on July 11 due to the last 10 days.

Markets are concerned that the shutdown may be extended because of the war in Ukraine. Loss of gas would hit Germany, the world’s fourth-largest economy.

Investors also kept an eye on U.S. inflation and the possible recession brought by the monetary tightening. The United States Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations released on Friday fell to 2.8% for July from 3.1% in June. Fed officials signalled that they would stick to a 75-bp rate increase during their meeting on July 26-27 to bring down inflation.

In Asia-Pacific, China reported 691 news COVID cases on Saturday, up from 547 the previous day, adding to markets’ worries about its economic recovery path.

China’s central bank is going to meet on Wednesday while the Bank of Japan meets on Thursday.

On technical fronts DOLLAR INDEX RSI stood at 62.51 and currently it is trading below 5 and 10 days MA & above 20 days MA. So, SELL position can be taken with following target and stoploss:

TRADE SIGNAL – : DOLLAR INDEX – SELL: 107.20, TARGET: 106.58, STOP LOSS : 107.83