Dollar Expands Losses Ahead Of PMI data

The Federal Statistical Office, Switzerland, reported today that total retail sales extended its downbeat trend since January 2015, with a sharp decline of 2.4% in March compared with a year earlier. On the same basis, after adjusting for special sales and holidays, real revenue from the retail sector witnessed a drop of 1.3% in March 2016. Retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco, which rose 1.6% in real terms, could not offset the big fall of 3.8% in the non-food sector.

In other data released today, the manufacturing PMI in Switzerland, which was at 53.2 in March, edged up to 54.7 last month. The reading marked a record high in the last two years, indicating that the country’s economy is growing.

The Commerce Department in US announced on Friday, that core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index (excluding food and energy) inched up 0.1% in March, in comparison with a rise of 0.2 percent in the preceding month. Due to the weak recovery in the economy, the Federal Reserve does not seem likely to raise interest rates twice this year. The greenback has continued to tumble today, with the dollar index DXY testing the level of 92.71, only 9 points above than its one year lows.

The Market is focusing on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for April – scheduled to be released a little later today. Economists’ forecast a reading of 51.6, which is lower than the previous reading. This Monday, Swiss National Bank Chairman Jordan is scheduled to speak about the Euro and Swiss monetary policy.

usdchf d1

Fig. USDCHF D1 Technical Chart

The USD is on track to weaken against the swissie, leading the pair USDCHF towards approaching the oversold territory as indicated on the stochastics chart. The price is expected to recover soon, trimming the recent losses. A buying position is suggested as the green SAR arrow has appeared under the price chart.

Trade suggestion

Buy at 0.96297, Stop loss at 0.96128, Take profit at 0.96549

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *