. Dow Futures: Inflation Data and Black Friday Sales Influence Market Sentiment

Dow Futures: Inflation Data and Black Friday Sales Influence Market Sentiment

Dow Futures: Inflation Data and Black Friday Sales Influence Market Sentiment

27 Nov 2023

“Dow Futures Pull Back as Attention Shifts to Inflation Data and Black Friday Sales”

U.S. stock futures dipped on Monday as the month approached its end, with investors exercising caution amid the anticipation of crucial inflation data. As of 06:05 ET (11:05 GMT), Dow Futures were down 27 points (0.1%), S&P 500 Futures traded 5 points lower (0.1%), and Nasdaq 100 Futures dropped 16 points (0.1%). Despite a positive trend in the three major averages during the previous week, marked by falling Treasury yields and cooling inflation indicators suggesting a potential halt to Federal Reserve rate hikes, the impressive gains in November have prompted a sense of prudence.

The NASDAQ Composite surged 12%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced over 9%, and the S&P 500 recorded an almost 11% increase. Investor focus is now on the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data scheduled for Thursday. The PCE price index is expected to have risen by 0.1% in November, down from 0.4% in September, while the core reading, excluding food and fuel costs, is projected to show a year-over-year increase of 3.5%, marking a decline from the prior month.

In addition to inflation data, the market awaits figures on new home sales and building permits for October, the first revision of third-quarter GDP, the weekly jobless claims report, and the Fed’s Beige Book. Meanwhile, the retail sector is under scrutiny, with investors seeking updates on Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, despite warnings from some retailers about weakening consumer spending. Oil prices experienced a notable decline as investors awaited news on production levels from the delayed OPEC+ meeting, with U.S. crude futures down 1.7% at $74.25 a barrel and the Brent contract dropping 1.5% to $79.24 a barrel. Gold futures rose 0.6% to $2,015.35/oz, reaching their highest level since May, while the EUR/USD traded 0.2% higher at 1.0955, contributing to the dollar’s largest monthly slide in a year.

Technical Analysis: US30

The US30, or Dow Jones Industrial Average, is currently in a bullish trend, supported by the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Key support and resistance levels provide insights into potential trading opportunities. The RSI indicates the market’s overbought or oversold conditions. Volume trends and upcoming events, such as economic releases, should be considered. Traders should stay vigilant for potential reversals or continuations, adjusting their strategies based on changing market conditions and practicing effective risk management.