. Euro Faces Uphill Battle as GDP Estimate Cut, EUR/USD Holds at 1.0700

Euro Faces Uphill Battle as GDP Estimate Cut, EUR/USD Holds at 1.0700

Euro Faces Uphill Battle as GDP Estimate Cut, EUR/USD Holds at 1.0700

07 Sep 2023

After a decrease in the EU GDP estimate, the EUR/USD remains close to 1.0700.

In the fast-paced world of currency trading, even the slightest economic shift can send shockwaves through the markets. Such is the case with the EUR/USD pair, which has been closely watched in the wake of a recent decrease in the European Union’s GDP estimate. In this article, we will delve into the fundamental and technical aspects of this currency pair to provide you with a comprehensive overview of its current state and potential trading opportunities.


Eurostat’s GDP Adjustment

The story begins with Eurostat’s decision to revise the real GDP growth estimate for the European Union in the second quarter. Originally pegged at 0.3% growth quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), the revised figure now stands at a more modest 0.1%. This downward adjustment had an immediate impact on the Euro, sending ripples through the currency market.

The Resilient US Dollar

In contrast, the US Dollar (USD) has maintained its strength during this period. The Euro’s struggles were further compounded by the USD’s resilience, preventing the EUR/USD pair from making a full recovery following the European trading session.

Staying Close to 1.0700

As a result of these developments, the EUR/USD pair finds itself trading close to the 1.0700 mark. This level has become a critical pivot point, and the pair remains on the defensive as it hovers in proximity to this key support and resistance zone.

Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve

The market is currently marked by risk aversion, evident in declining US stock index futures. This risk-off sentiment is acting as a barrier to any significant technical recovery by the EUR/USD pair.

Market participants are also keeping a keen eye on any remarks made by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. With only two more days before the Fed’s blackout period begins, policymakers have a limited window to influence market expectations.


A Closer Look at Technicals

Turning our attention to the technical aspect, the EUR/USD pair is currently trading within a down channel. It’s worth noting that the pair is positioned below all Moving Averages (SMA), indicating a bearish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is firmly in the selling zone, while the Stochastic oscillator suggests a neutral trend.

Key Levels to Watch

  • Immediate Resistance level: 1.0760
  • Immediate support level: 1.0699


Analyzing the Trade Setup

Considering the recent price action, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been trending lower, forming lower lows along the way. Notably, it has created a head and shoulders pattern, which is often seen as a bearish indicator. Currently, it’s trading at a support zone, and if this zone fails to hold, we could see further downside in the pair.

Trade Suggestion

  • Entry at 1.0684
  • Take Profit at 1.0627
  • Stop Loss at 1.0733


In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair is facing significant headwinds, primarily stemming from the Eurostat’s GDP revision and the US Dollar’s strength. Technical indicators also suggest a bearish bias. As always, traders should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before executing any trades in the volatile forex market.


1. What caused the Euro’s decline against the US Dollar?

The Euro’s decline can be attributed to Eurostat’s downward revision of the EU GDP estimate for the second quarter, along with the continued strength of the US Dollar.

2. Why is the 1.0700 level significant for the EUR/USD pair?

The 1.0700 level is crucial because it acts as both a support and resistance zone. The pair’s proximity to this level indicates its current state of uncertainty.

3. What is a head and shoulders pattern, and why is it bearish?

A head and shoulders pattern is a technical chart pattern that signals a potential reversal in the price trend. It’s considered bearish because it suggests that the price may decline after forming this pattern.

4. How should traders approach the EUR/USD pair in the current market conditions?

Traders should exercise caution and consider short positions given the bearish sentiment. However, it’s essential to conduct thorough analysis and set stop-loss levels to manage risk.