EURUSD Longs In Play As ECB Powers Market Higher – Upside Limited

EURUSD rose in the early European trading session on Friday, heading for a higher weekly closing for the first time in the last three weeks. The burden of a widely expected extension to the Eurozone’s asset purchasing program was taken off the Euro, which seems to be outweighing any negative impact from today’s weaker-than-expected data on the single currency.

German Trade Balance Data for July that was reported earlier, came out with a lower than expected reading. According to the Federal Statistical Office, Destatis, Germany’s trade surplus for July fell to 19.4 billion euros ($21.9 billion) from a revised 21.4 billion euros in June, missing the forecasts for a surplus of 22.7 billion euros.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, exports slipped by 2.6% from one month earlier and 10% compared to a year ago, while imports dropped by 0.7%. Subsequently, Germany’s current account balance showed a surplus of only 18.6 billion euros in July, well below expectations for a reading of 22.9 billion euros. The large contraction in July 2016’s data compared to the same month last year was in part because of July 2015 being among the strongest months of the entire 2015 for German exporters.

Today, France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) reported that the country’s industrial production dropped unexpectedly in July. Industrial production in the EU’s second-largest economy fell by 0.6% in July, following a 0.7% decline in June. In particular, manufacturing of equipment skid by 3.3% on a month on month basis, in July, and production of transport materials lost by 1.4%.

The euro seemed resilient after the data releases, as at the moment, the shared currency is not under any threat of rate cuts or any other upcoming stimulus measures. The European Central Bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday as expected but disappointed the markets with no explicit guidance about the central bank’s next moves.

Speaking at the press conference after the rate decision, ECB President Mario Draghi stated that the bank was studying potential changes to its asset-buying program, and maintained the March 2017 end-date for the ongoing program. However, he also reiterated the current risk to inflation and reassured markets that “If warranted, we will act by using all the instruments available within our mandate.”

Investors are shifting their focus now to the meeting of the U.S Federal Reserve later this month. Despite a chorus of Fed officials including President Janet Yellen and her top Deputy Stanley Fisher signalling that the time to hike rates is approaching as the economy is at or near the full-employment level, investors have trimmed bets that the Fed would be raising rates as early as this month, especially after recent data echoing the disappointment of a smaller-than-expected NFP last Friday.

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Fig: EURUSD D1 Technical Chart

EURUSD has been receiving huge support from both the 20-day and 50-day MA’s that were intercepted by the price action from below, earlier in the week. Both the MA’s are now placed below the price action and underpinning the current up-move. While the long-term moving average played an important role in supporting the market last week, the short term MA is currently acting as a handle that forces the euro to reverse higher, on every attempt to test it. The market has entered the bullish zone and set the stage for further advances. Nonetheless, the uptrend seems to be limited as a downward sloping trendline connecting the highs from earlier in the year, is currently weighing on the price action.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.12740, Stop loss at 1.12278, take profit at 1.13100

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