Global food prices soar, wheat enjoys short-term relief from Indian exports

Global food prices soar, wheat enjoys short-term relief from Indian exports

market outlook

Chicago wheat futures price is up 1.15% at $10.2 per bushel on early Friday trades.

Market participants are looking forward to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) world crop report, due to be released today, i.e., Friday, to gauge the potential impact of the Ukrainian war on the global food supply.

On Friday, the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Authority reported that its world food price index had hit a new record for the third time in March. It has risen 34% YoY. Global food prices have hit a new record on the impact of the Ukrainian war, which has disrupted Black Sea exports of crucial agricultural commodities. Russia and Ukraine account for around 30% of the global wheat supply. 

The disruption in the global supply chain of food due to the COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbated by the conflict in eastern Europe, has intensified the acute food insecurity faced in the African and Middle Eastern regions. These two regions depend significantly on Russia and Ukraine for their wheat import.

The future prospect of wheat prices will depend on the ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Environmental factors of major wheat exporting nations will also significantly influence the future supply of wheat and, consequently, its prices.

On the technical side, the RSI of Chicago wheat futures stood at 49.67 and is currently trading above MA (5) and MA (50) but below MA (20). So. BUY position can be taken with the following target and stop loss:

TRADE SIGNAL: CHICAGO WHEAT FUTURES – BUY: 10.4, TAKE PROFIT: 11.2 AND STOP LOSS: 9.6

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