How will the sanctions on Russia trigger the Commodity Markets?

How will the sanctions on Russia trigger the Commodity Markets?

Commodity Markets

Russian platinum, palladium, rhodium, and other platinum group metals are produced in large quantities. The metals are byproducts of Siberian nickel production in the Norilsk area, and Russia also contributes significant amounts of nickel and aluminium, both of which are key base metals. Fertilizers, which are used in agricultural production all over the world, are also made in Russia.

Energy, metals, minerals, agricultural, petrochemical, and other exports from Russia supply the globe, including the United States and Europe. The Russian invasion of Ukraine risks supply shortages at a time when inflation and supply chain bottlenecks have already pushed prices to multi-year and all-time highs.

Oil prices surged on Monday as the US and its allies imposed further sanctions on Russia and prevented key Russian banks from participating in a global payment system, threatening the country’s oil exports. After touching a high of $105.07 a barrel in early trade, Brent oil increased $4.16, or 4.3 percent, to $102.09 at 0915. On Monday, the Brent contract for April delivery ends. The most actively traded contract, for May delivery, was trading at $98.28, up $4.16.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia, and allies – collectively known as OPEC+ – are scheduled to meet on March 2 amid the conflict in Ukraine. The company is expected to stick to its objective of adding 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of additional supply in April. OPEC+ cut down its prediction for the oil market surplus for 2022 by approximately 200,000 bpd to 1.1 million bpd ahead of the meeting, highlighting market pressure.

Europe depends on Russia for natural gas supplies. Because Russia utilises the energy commodity as a political instrument to oppose economic penalties, sanctions are likely to cause difficulties. To ease the shortages created by Russia-NATO tensions, the US may consider diverting LNG exports from Asia to Europe. While the NYMEX natural gas futures market is mostly local, LNG exports from other countries have elevated it to a global market. The geopolitical sensitivity of the natural gas futures market is only increasing as a result of the situation in Ukraine.

Natural gas supplies to Europe are reliant on Russia. Because Russia utilises the energy commodity as a political instrument to oppose economic penalties, sanctions are likely to cause difficulties. To ease the shortages created by Russia-NATO tensions, the US may consider diverting LNG exports from Asia to Europe. While the NYMEX natural gas futures market is mostly local, LNG exports from other countries have elevated it to a global market. The geopolitical sensitivity of the natural gas futures market is only increasing as a result of the situation in Ukraine.

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