Market bull predicts calmer June but delivers a summer swoon warning
02 Jun 2021
Investors may get relief from volatility this month.
According to CFRA Research’s Sam Stovall, Wall Street just entered a historically calm month.
“June really is sort of a lackluster month in terms of average returns [and] in terms of frequency of advance,” the firm’s chief investment strategist told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Tuesday.
But Stovall is urging investors to embrace the dullness. He warns June may set the market up for a July swoon.
For the year, Stovall sees the “zigzag” pattern as the historical market trend most likely to repeat itself this year. His call is tied to the market’s very strong start to the year and jitters surrounding inflation.
“What history says is that these strong starts are typically concluded with favorable finishes,” said Stovall. “In the meantime, however, we do go through a bit of volatility as the market adjusts — trying to figure out whether it should continue with the advance or start to pull back.”
“We use history. We use fundamentals. We even use technicals to come up with this number,” he said.
Stovall sees a mixture of robust earnings and strong GDP growth as major bullish catalysts.
“In the end, investors will conclude that equities remain the asset class of choice,” Stovall said.
The S&P 500 was virtually flat on the first day of June trading, closing at 4,202.04. The index is up almost 12% so far this year.