NZDUSD Outlook – 29-Dec-2015


NZD/USD remains at the prevailing highs and toys with the mid-point of the 0.68 handle. The price remains in recovery and within the ascending channel from middle of November lows of 0.6431.

We are light on data this week as the final trading for 2015 and volumes are expected to remain low. There are no domestic events for the pair to end the year, but focus will turn to Chinese non-manufacturing and NBS manufacturing PMI’s for December. There has been some volatility however in the commodities market and with the uncertainty around, light volatility might be expected. The New Year will focus on the commodities, RBNZ and whether the Fed can indeed continue to normalise the economy’s monetary policy.

Technically, the 200 DMA at 0.6853 is key although the price remains within the broader bearish trend from 0.7600. A break of the psychological 0.70 handle is key and this will close the gap at 0.7107 and could be bullish. A continuation to the downside looks in at the 20 DMA at 0.6726 below S3 at 0.6791.

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