Oil prices

Oil Ends March Lower on Cautious Pre-OPEC Trade

Brent was trading 2.20% up   at  $64.12.

Oil prices fell more than 2% Wednesday to close down for the day and March as traders moved cautiously ahead of a decision on production quotas by OPEC+.

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude, settled down $1.39, or 2.3%, at $59.16 per barrel.

London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for crude, closed down $1.40, or 2.2%, at $63.53.

For the month, WTI and Brent lost almost 4% while for the quarter, they rose about 22%.

Oil prices fell on the day despite the Energy Information Administration reporting a drop of 876,000 barrels for crude stockpiles last week, compared with analysts’ expectations for a build of 107,000 barrels.

The EIA said GASOLINE inventories also declined by 1.735 million barrels last week, compared with expectations for a 730,000-barrel build.

U.S. crude exports, meanwhile, climbed above the 3-million-barrel per day mark after being stagnant at around 2.5 million barrels for weeks.

The EIA report aside, there was also general optimism across markets for President Joe Biden’s proposed $2 trillion U.S. infrastructure plan, the details of which were scheduled to be announced later on Wednesday.

Still, traders exercised caution ahead of the outcome of a two-day meeting of OPEC+ on production quotas for May.

Since April last year, the 23-nation OPEC+ — made up of the 13-member Saudi-led OPEC, or Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and 10 non-OPEC nations steered by Russia — has withheld at least 7.0 million barrels per day of supply from the market.

Those cuts helped WTI rise from a little under $36 per barrel on Oct. 30 to just below $68 by March 8. Brent went from beneath $38 to just above $71 in that same stretch. But over the past fortnight, the two benchmarks have lost about 10% from those highs.

The most critical component of the OPEC+ cuts has been the Saudi portion —  which has accounted for anywhere between one and two million barrels per day since April.

In January, when oil bears were betting on the alliance to hike production amid strengthening signs of demand recovery, the Saudis doubled down with an additional one million-barrel cut for February and March, sending crude prices soaring. Saudi Oil Minister Abdulzaziz bin Salman had boasted then that he would make life “hell” for short-sellers in oil.

On the technical front, Brent Oil , RSI stood at 48.979, the current price is trading  Below  the Moving Averages 5 & 20  . So, a  SELL trade can be executed with the following target and stop-loss:

TRADE SIGNAL-  Brent Oil – SELL: 64.10, TARGET :-63.10 , STOP LOSS :- 64.60 .

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