OPEC+ set to confirm modest April output rise despite oil price spike

OPEC+ oil

Brent Crude  was trading  up  5.97%  at  $111.22

OPEC+ oil producers meeting on Wednesday do not plan to accelerate output rises, according to a draft deal seen by Reuters, as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates recommit to a deal with Russia even as crude prices rocket higher.

Oil shot above $110 a barrel this week, their highest in almost eight years, as Western sanctions tightened on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and disrupted supplies from the world’s second largest oil exporter.

The Western measures also caused problems for exports from Kazakhstan, another member of OPEC+, a group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and allied oil producers.

OPEC+ has been hiking output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month since August as they unwind cuts made when the pandemic slashed demand. They have resisted calls from the United States and other consumers for more supplies.

A draft deal seen by Reuters on Wednesday showed the group was set to stick to the same modest output target hike for April, a deal OPEC+ ministers are expected rubber stamp when the meet at 1230 GMT, four sources from the alliance said.

“I think they’ll stick to the usual monthly increase,” said one source. Another said in reference to earlier preparatory talks: “Saudi brushed off factoring geopolitical tensions into the meeting, and said stick with the fundamental story.”

Russia describes its action in Ukraine as a “special operation” and says it has no plans to occupy the country.

Before full ministerial talks, a smaller ministerial committee known as JMMC which can recommend action to the wider group meets at 1200 GMT. A Gulf source said the half hour allocated to that meeting, shorter than usual, indicated there was not plan to change to existing output plans.

The United States has repeatedly said it would like to see OPEC+ increase by more, but only a few countries have spare capacity, including OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbour the UAE.

OPEC+ still has 2.6 million bpd of cuts it expects to unwind by the end of September, while demand for oil rebounded sharply as the pandemic has waned, sending oil prices sharply higher.

Saudi Arabia’s cabinet reaffirmed its commitment to the OPEC+ deal on Tuesday, while Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phonecall with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan.

The UAE, a close U.S. ally in the Middle East, abstained in a Feb. 25 vote on a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Moscow’s actions in Ukraine.

RSI Stood at 81.960, the current price is trading Above All  the Moving Averages  . So, a  Buy trade can be executed with the following target and stop-loss:

TRADE SIGNAL-BRENT CRUDE Buy: 111.20, TARGET:-112.00, STOP LOSS:- 110.80.

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