Long-term market bull John Stoltzfus is questioning the October comeback’s stamina.
He lists risks tied to Covid-19 variants, the inflation surge and Washington policy as catalysts that could dampen Wall Street’s appetite for stocks into year-end.
“There’s plenty of worry in the market,” the chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday during a big day for the Dow. It hit its first intraday high since Aug. 15.
Based on market activity since 2008, Stoltzfus suggests a potentially sharp drop at this juncture shouldn’t scare investors. He highlighted a chart in a recent report showing the S&P 500 saw a half dozen corrections since March 9, 2009, which marked the financial crisis’ lowest point and the beginning of the next bull market.
“Markets do not grow like trees. They don’t grow to the sky, and they also don’t grow in a straight line upwards,” Stoltzfus said. “You have periods where you can have corrections. You could even have a near bear market or a bear market.”
Despite the near-term pullback risks, Stoltzfus contends corporate profits and economic strength are encouraging.
“You have these fundamentals that remain strong in the sense that business is posting good earnings,” he added. “We’re moving towards a recovery process that will likely become a global economic recovery on the back of a sustainable U.S. expansion.”
Stoltzfus expects stocks to “climb a wall of worry” into year-end. His S&P 500 year-end target is 4,700, which implies about a 4% gain from current levels.