Summary of the Past Week
US & NORTH AMERICAN Market Weekly Snapshot
Futures on major US indices closed in positive territory for the week. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures rose more than 0.50% this week. On the other hand, Dow Jones futures edged down 0.09% for the week.
U.S. equities rose on Friday after a slew of positive corporate news that included strong bank earnings and giant deal in the energy sector.
In the Cash Markets, the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 inched up 0.46% and 0.66% respectively on Friday. The DJIA gained around 269 points to close at 26,412.30 on Friday. The S&P 500 has recorded a third consecutive weekly gain. The broad-market index broke above the key 2,900 level for the first time in six months and stood at less than 1% from a record high.
Disney stocks surged 11.5% after the company unveiled a streaming service at a lower price point than Netflix. The media-giant said it would launch its Disney+ a video-streaming business on 12th November for $6.99 a month. Stocks of JP Morgan rose 4.63% after the bank reported record first-quarter profit and revenue that topped market expectations due to higher interest rates.
On the economic front, the Import Price Index (MoM) for March released on Friday came in at 0.6%. The index change was above the consensus estimates of 0.4%. Most of jump in Import prices can be due to rising fuel prices.
In addition, Michigan consumer sentiment index (P) for April also released on Friday came in at 96.9. The index reading was below the market expectation of 98.1.
In news related to Oil Markets, the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count released on Friday came in at 833 for the week ended 12th April. The Oil Rig Count was 831 in the previous week.
The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman said on Thursday that officials at the central bank see no necessity to move interest rates in either direction at present.
The Wall Street Journal reported that China agreed to open its cloud-computing sector to foreign companies in an attempt to reach a deal with the U.S. This followed Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin saying on Wednesday that the U.S. and China have pretty much agreed on an enforcement mechanism for when a deal is struck.
On the economic front, Initial Jobless Claims released on Thursday fell 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 for the week ended April 6. It was their lowest level in fifty years, the Labor Department disclosed on Thursday. Also, Claims number for the prior week was revised to show 2,000 more applications received than previously reported.
In addition, PPI (MoM) for March also out on Thursday came in at 0.6%. The PPI growth was above the market expectation of 0.3%.
The EIA said in a weekly report on Wednesday that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 7.029 million barrels for the week ended 5th April. The markets had expected that the EIA would report a 2.294 million barrel rise in US crude inventories for the week. Previously, the EIA reported that U.S. crude inventories rose by 7.238 million barrels for the week ended March 29.
On the economic front, Core CPI (MoM) for March released on Wednesday came in at 0.1%. The Core CPI change was below the market expectation of 0.2%.
Tuesday & Monday
The API reported on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories rose by 4.091 million barrels for the week ended April 5. Previously, the API reported that U.S. crude supplies rose by 2.963 million barrel for the week ended March 29.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Monday proposed a list of European Union products on which to impose tariffs as retaliation for European aircraft subsidies.
On the economic front, Factory Orders for February released on Monday came in at -0.5%. Orders change was in line with the market expectation.
European & Asian-Pacific Weekly Markets Snapshot
Futures on major European indices closed in positive territory for the week. DAX 30 and FTSE 100 futures edged up 0.13% and 0.22% respectively for the week. CAC 40 futures rose 0.49% for the week.
European equities closed slightly higher on Friday as economic data, early first-quarter results and Brexit relief calmed concerns over the region’s economy.
Italy’s stock market gained for the week even as Italian populist coalition government conceded that economic growth will be sharply lower this year than previously forecast. The government approved an updated budget plan that forecasts growth will be 0.2% in 2019.
European Union leaders and the U.K. government have agreed to a flexible extension of the Brexit deadline until late October. The president of the European Council said that this development will provide an additional six months for the UK to find the best possible solution.
On the data front, the European Industrial Production (MoM) for February released on Friday came in at -0.2%. The Industrial Production change was above the market expectation of a fall of 0.5%.
On the data front, the German CPI (MoM) for March released on Thursday came in at 0.4%. The CPI growth was in line with the market expectation. In addition, the French CPI (MoM) for March also released on Thursday came in at 0.8%. The CPI growth was in line with the market expectation.
The European Central Bank kept its ultra-easy monetary policy unchanged as expected on Wednesday. With Wednesday’s decision, the ECB’s deposit rate remains at -0.40% while the main refinancing rate stands at 0.00%.
On the data front, U.K. GDP data for February was released on Wednesday. The MoM rate of change in the GDP was +0.2%. The GDP growth was in line with the market expectation.
In addition, Manufacturing Production (MoM) for February also out on Wednesday came in at 0.9%. The Production change was above the consensus estimates of 0.2%.
Futures on major Asia-Pacific indices ended in positive territory for the week. Nikkei 225 and SPI 200 futures rose more than 0.60% for the week. On the other hand, Hang Seng futures edged down 0.12% for the week.
Mainland China’s financial markets fell for the week, as investors took a breather after four consecutive weeks of gains and waited for a U.S.-China trade deal amid reports that both sides are closing in on a final agreement. In the Cash Markets, the Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.8% for the week.
On the economic front, the Chinese Trade Balance (USD) for March released on Friday came in at 32.65B. The trade balance was above the market expectation of 7.05B.
The Australian Prime Minister announced on Thursday that a general election will be conducted on 18th May.
Official data released on Thursday showed that Chinese consumer inflation in March hit a five-month high on the back of higher food prices. The Chinese CPI (YoY) released on Thursday came in at 2.3%. The CPI growth met market expectations. The Chinese PPI (YoY) also released on Thursday came in at 0.4%. The PPI growth was in line with market expectations.
Tuesday & Monday
On the data-front, Australian Home Loans (MoM) for February released on Tuesday came in at 2%. The index change was above the market expectation of a fall of 2%.
The Japanese Consumer Confidence for March released on Monday came in at 40.5. The index reading was below the market expectation of 42.
In a document published on the Chinese government’s website on Sunday, Beijing said that it would step up a policy of targeted cuts to banks’ required reserve ratios to encourage financing for small and medium-sized businesses.
WEEKLY FOREX UPDATE
The U.S. dollar dropped on Friday to its lowest against the euro in more than two weeks on reports a foreign bank was preparing to fund an acquisition of a European company, while signs of economic stabilization in China and a strong start to U.S. corporate earnings season boosted demand for riskier assets.
The dollar rose on Thursday on encouraging U.S. inflation and labor data
The pound fell on Thursday after a delay of up to six months to Brexit left investors scratching their heads about the direction for the British currency, with few expecting wild price swings in the months ahead.
The yen rose on Tuesday as investors favored the Japanese currency after the U.S. announced it was considering tariffs on $11 billion of European goods and the IMF downgraded its outlook on the global economy.
WEEKLY COMMODITY MARKET UPDATE
Gold fell on Friday, having posted its biggest daily decline in two weeks on Thursday, as the impact of a weak dollar was offset by gains on Wall Street. Gold edged down 0.10% for the week. The yellow metal had broken below the key psychological level of $1,300 on Thursday to touch a one-week low due to sharp gains in the dollar. Early in the week, gold received support from increased buying by central banks and a dovish view from the European Central Bank as well as minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Silver rose on Friday to end the week at $14.905 an ounce. The metal fell 0.80% for the week. The metal declined for the third straight week. Silver inched up by 0.4 percent to $15.130 on Wednesday.
Crude Oil prices gained about 0.5% on Friday as involuntary supply cuts from Venezuela and Iran plus conflict in Libya supported perceptions of a tightening crude market, while upbeat Chinese economic data eased concerns about waning crude demand. WTI and Brent recorded a weekly gain of around 1%, which was Brent’s third straight week of gains and the sixth consecutive rise for WTI.
Crude Oil markets have been lifted by more than 30% this year by supply cuts led by the OPEC and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, plus escalating conflict in OPEC member Libya.
Money managers increased their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to April 9, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday.
The Week Ahead (15th -19th April)
The Bank of Canada will release its business outlook survey at 10:30 am ET on Monday.
Apple-Qualcomm $27 billion trial will begin in San Diego federal court on Monday. The trial will determine whether Qualcomm operates a smartphone modem chip monopoly and charges too much for licensing fees. Apple has accused Qualcomm of anticompetitive practices that increased chip prices, restricted competition and hurt customer choice.
Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers will begin a two-day symposium in Toronto on Tuesday.
The Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book at 1400 EDT on Wednesday.
In Europe, markets are awaiting for flash PMI data on manufacturing and service sector activity, which should give further indication of how the region’s economy is faring amid global trade conflicts and messy Brexit negotiations. The preliminary reading of Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is scheduled to be released on Thursday. The PMI reading is expected to rise to 48.1 from 47.5 in the previous month.
European stock markets will remain closed on Friday for a public holiday.
The Chinese GDP data for the first quarter is scheduled to be released on Wednesday. GDP is expected to rise by 1.4% on QoQ basis.
On Thursday, the Reserve Bank of India will release minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting, which concluded on 4 April 2019.
The world’s largest and third-largest democracies are going to the polls. Indonesia holds parliamentary and presidential elections on Wednesday. India’s elections are spread over seven phases and 39 days from 11 April to 19 May.
MAJOR COMPANIES EARNINGS CALENDAR
Monday- Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Charles Schwab, JB Hunt
Tuesday- IBM, Bank of America, Johnson and Johnson, BlackRock, Netflix, UnitedHealth
Wednesday– PepsiCo, Abbott Labs, Morgan Stanley, Las Vegas Sands, ETrade
Thursday– American Express, Intuitive Surgical, Synchrony Financial, Union Pacific
Important Economic Releases (15th -19th April)