. Daily Commodity Analysis - Commodities react to geopolitical tensions, uncertainties.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Commodities react to geopolitical tensions, uncertainties.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Commodities react to geopolitical tensions, uncertainties.

16 Apr 2024

Introduction

WTI oil prices hover above $85.00, cautiously reacting to Iran’s assault on Israel. As tension escalates, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mobilizes a response. Meanwhile, mixed Chinese data influences crude prices. Natural gas futures struggle amidst high storage levels, while gold and silver face pressure from a bullish USD amidst uncertain Fed rate cut timing.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI trims gains amid market caution after Iran attacks Israel, remains above $85.00.

WTI price received upward support as investors expect Israel to respond to Iran’s assault. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called upon his war cabinet to formulate a response to Iran’s direct attack on Israel. The crude Oil prices hold ground in the face of mixed Chinese data. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price edges higher to near $85.30 per barrel during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The crude oil prices receive upward support due to concerns about the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly in the wake of Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Saturday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 85.3252 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 84.1746 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 81.3521 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 85.9276 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 84.1472 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.5512 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.6460 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 69.8663 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9547 R2 : 85.6260
  • S1 : 78.5440 S2 : 76.8727

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 84.26 | Take Profit: 87.08 | Stop Loss: 82.63

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Traders Seek Support Base Amidst High Storage Levels.

U.S. natural gas futures are slightly down as traders seek to establish a support base. Despite an attempted breakout above the 50-day moving average last week, factors such as favorable weather, low LNG demand, and significant storage builds have stalled upward trends. End-of-season reports show U.S. natural gas inventories 39% above the five-year average, with a surplus driven by a mild winter and reduced residential and commercial consumption. This surplus has pressured prices, with Henry Hub averaging less than $2.00 per MMBtu recently. Projected natural gas production for the upcoming months shows a slight decline from the previous year. The market’s short-term outlook remains cautiously bearish due to high storage levels and anticipated mild demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7033 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7157 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.8401 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7211 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.6998 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.7532 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.9982 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 33.8401 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8789 R2 : 1.9741
  • S1 : 1.5711 S2 : 1.4759

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.71 | Take Profit: 1.87 | Stop Loss: 1.52

GOLD

Gold price trades with modest losses amid bullish USD, downside potential seems limited.

Gold price struggles to capitalize on the overnight positive move and attracts some sellers on Tuesday. Reduced Fed rate cut bets lift the USD to its highest level since November and exert some pressure. The worsening Middle East crisis should lend support to the safe-haven metal and help limit losses. Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower during the early European session on Tuesday and reverses a part of the overnight move up from the $2,325-2,324 area, or a multi-day low. The US Dollar (USD) buying remains unabated amid firming expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer in the wake of sticky inflation and a resilient US economy. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting some downward pressure on the US Dollar-denominated commodity, though any meaningful corrective decline still seems elusive.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2335.6981 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2286.9524 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2194.3542 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2341.2012 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2274.1563 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2156.4943 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 72.4264 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 74.2183 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2357.80 | Take Profit: 2399.38 | Stop Loss: 2330.61

SILVER

XAG/USD plummets to $28.40 as uncertainty over Fed rate cut timing deepens.

Silver price plunges to $28.40 as the US Dollar capitalizes on uncertainty over Fed rate cut timing. US bond yields rise further as the Fed is expected to consider rate cuts later this year. Geopolitical tensions keep safe-haven demand intact. Silver price (XAG/USD) slumps to $28.40 in Tuesday’s European session. The white metal faces intense selling pressure as the US Dollar extends its upside to a more than five-month high of around 106.40. The US Dollar strengthened after robust United States Retail Sales data for March deepened uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 28.43 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 28.11 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 27.10 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 28.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 28.22 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 26.77 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 56.67 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 26.55 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 28.87 R2 : 29.76
  • S1 : 28.21 S2 : 27.16

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 28.11 | Take Profit: 29.21 | Stop Loss: 27.51

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.46%) at 2371.48, Silver down (1.67%) at 28.35, Palladium down (0.74%) at 1041.39, Platinum up (0.48%) at 967.19, Brent Crude Oil up (0.04%) at 90.14, WTI Crude Oil up (0.00%) at 85.34 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CNY) GDP (YoY) (Q1) Forecast –4.8%, Previous –5.2% at 07:30. (CNY) Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) Forecast 6.0%, Previous 7.0% at 07:30 (GBP) Average Earnings Index+Bonus (Feb) Forecast 5.5%, Previous 5.6% at 11:30. (USD) Building Permits (Mar) Forecast 1.514M, Previous 1.524M at 18:00. (CAD) Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) Previous 0.1% at 18:00. (GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 22:30.