. Daily Commodity Analysis - Commodities Surge as Middle East Wanes.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Commodities Surge as Middle East Wanes.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Commodities Surge as Middle East Wanes.

09 Apr 2024

Introduction

Amid fading hopes for a Middle East ceasefire, oil prices surged, reversing earlier losses. Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas in Cairo concluded, ending multi-session rallies for Brent and WTI crude oil. With eyes on U.S. and China inflation data, geopolitical tensions continue to buoy oil prices. Additionally, natural gas futures remain resilient amidst uncertainty, while gold consolidates at record highs amid global economic cues. Silver’s rally also persists, driven by increasing demand for precious metals.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil prices turn higher as Middle East ceasefire hopes wane.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday after hopes diminished that negotiations between Israel and Hamas would lead to a ceasefire in Gaza and ease tension in the Middle East. A fresh round of Israel-Hamas ceasefire discussions in Cairo had ended a multi-session rally on Monday, leading Brent to its first decline in five sessions and WTI to its first in seven on the prospect that geopolitical risks could ease. This week, the market will be watching inflation data due from the U.S. and China for further signals on the economic direction of the world’s top two oil consumers. The positive geopolitical risk premium is indeed supporting the current medium-term uptrend phase of oil.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 89.1651 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 87.5428 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 84.8761 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 88.8525 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 87.1584 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 83.9567 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 70.9957 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 82.1350 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 87.7428 R2 : 89.3032
  • S1 : 82.6912 S2 : 81.1308

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 88.91 | Take Profit : 91.42 | Stop Loss : 87.46

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Resilient Performance Amid Bearish Factors.

Natural gas futures are exhibiting minimal movement , indicating uncertainty amidst consolidation just above a significant long-term low. This price action reflects a blend of short-term weather demand outlook and a longer-term anticipation of production cuts leading to reduced stockpiles. Weather forecasts indicate a shift towards warmer conditions, potentially reducing heating-related gas consumption. Power outages in the Northeast and the anticipated impact of a solar eclipse on solar generation could also temporarily dampen demand. LSEG projects a decline in gas demand over the next few weeks, reflecting these factors. Considering the warmer weather outlook, adequate supply amidst reduced production, and broader energy market trends, the short-term forecast for U.S. natural gas prices leans bearish.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7215 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7256 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8699 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7021 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.6939 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8077 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 53.0031 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 77.2661 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8788 R2 : 1.9739
  • S1 : 1.5709 S2 : 1.4758

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.80 | Take Profit : 1.88 | Stop Loss : 1.76

GOLD

Gold price consolidates its recent gains to all-time high, bullish potential seems intact.

Gold price (XAU/USD) oscillates in a range below the $2,350 level during the Asian session on Tuesday and consolidates its recent strong gains to a record high touched the previous day. The upbeat US jobs report released on Friday, along with the recent hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, suggested that the US central bank could delay cutting interest rates. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated and helps revive the US Dollar (USD) demand. This, along with a generally positive risk tone, caps the upside for the non-yielding yellow metal amid extremely overstretched conditions on the daily chart. Meanwhile, the optimism over a possible ceasefire between Israel and Hamas faded rather quickly as talks remained deadlocked. Moreover, Iran has threatened military action against Israel over an alleged strike on its embassy in Syria, raising the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This, in turn, might continue to underpin the safe-haven Gold price and limit any corrective decline. Traders might also prefer to move to the sidelines and wait for more cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path. Hence, the focus will remain on the release of the US consumer inflation figures and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2285.3915 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2237.1336 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2157.0033 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2278.8903 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2223.9630 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2124.1011 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 84.0214 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 95.6419 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2341.72 | Take Profit : 2349.80 | Stop Loss : 2337.52

SILVER

XAG/USD rally continues amid demand of precious metals.

Silver’s rise mirrors growing precious metals interest, fueled by global central bank moves. Overbought RSI hints at consolidation before aiming higher, reflecting market optimism. Upcoming targets: $28.00 resistance, June 2021 peak, signaling potential for more gains. Silver’s price rose for the second straight day, climbing to $27.80, gaining more than 1% in late trading on Monday’s North American session, even though US Treasury bond yields advanced. Even though speculations that the US Federal Reserve could cut twice instead of three times were no excuse for the grey’s metal advance linked to Gold’s rally. Appetite for precious metals increased as global central banks increased their reserves in Gold.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 27.48 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 26.95 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 25.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 27.45 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 26.88 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 25.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 76.39 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 44.89 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 28.06 R2 : 28.82
  • S1 : 27.17 S2 : 26.48

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 27.30 | Take Profit : 28.13 | Stop Loss : 26.80

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.27%) at 2345.29, Silver up (0.06%) at 27.84, Palladium up (1.31%) at 1056.39, Platinum up (1.14%) at 939.75, Brent Crude Oil up (0.15%) at 90.52, WTI Crude Oil up (0.12%) at 86.53 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) NZIER Business Confidence (Q1) Previous -2.0% at 03:30. (GBP) BRS Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Mar) Forecast 1.8%, Previous 1.0% at 04:31. (USD) EIA Short –Term Energy Outlook at 21:30.