. Daily Commodity Analysis - Commodities surge, traders navigate volatile landscape.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Commodities surge, traders navigate volatile landscape.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Commodities surge, traders navigate volatile landscape.

15 Mar 2024

Introduction

WTI hovers near $80.60, just below the year-to-date peak, as it takes a breather amid hawkish Fed sentiments and China’s economic concerns. Despite headwinds, a positive demand outlook keeps corrections in check. Meanwhile, natural gas faces bearish pressures ahead of the EIA report, while copper surges to 11-month highs on Chinese supply disruptions.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI holds steady around the $80.60 area, just below the YTD peak touched on Thursday.

WTI pauses after the previous day’s strong move up to a fresh YTD peak. Hawkish Fed expectations and China’s economic woes act as a headwind. Improved demand outlook should limit any meaningful corrective decline. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices oscillate in a narrow range, just above mid-$ 80.00s during the Asian session on Friday, and remain well within the striking distance of the highest level since November 6 touched the previous day. The hotter-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might stick to its higher-for-longer interest rates narrative to bring down inflation. This is expected to hamper economic activity and dent fuel demand, which, along with concerns about a slowdown in China, acts as a headwind for Crude Oil prices. The downside, however, remains cushioned in the wake of a sharp decline in US inventories, drone strikes on Russian refineries, and a rise in energy demand forecasts.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 79.3040 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.5744 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 77.2361 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 79.0624 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.6218 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 76.3070 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 60.6482 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 81.8470 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
  • S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 79.66 | Take Profit: 82.10 | Stop Loss: 78.34

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Bearish Outlook Prevails Ahead of EIA Storage Report.

EIA reports expectations lower than average, influencing bearish market sentiment. Reduced LNG exports and high storage levels exert downward price pressure. Upcoming colder weather may introduce short-term volatility in gas futures. U.S. natural gas futures are experiencing a decline, influenced by various factors including weather forecasts, storage reports, and LNG plant outages. The market is poised for volatility in light of the upcoming Energy Information Administration (EIA) report and recent trends in gas prices and production.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7502 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.8027 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.0246 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7790 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7651 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.1275 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.1412 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 23.0212 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.78 | Take Profit: 1.52 | Stop Loss: 1.97

GOLD

Gold price remains on track to register weekly losses for the first time in the previous three.

Gold prices moved little in Asian trade on Friday as stronger-than-expected inflation data spurred more fears that the Federal Reserve will signal higher-for-longer interest rates at an upcoming meeting. Pressure on the yellow metal came chiefly from growing angst over a Fed meeting next week, especially as consumer and producer inflation signals read stronger than expected for a third straight month. Sticky inflation saw traders grow fearful of any hawkish signals from the Fed, especially as the central bank signaled that its plans for interest rate cuts in 2024 will be largely dictated by the path of inflation. Higher-for-longer rates bode poorly for gold and other non-yielding assets.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2147.2610 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2113.9466 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2070.0155 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2157.4690 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2096.1857 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2054.0824 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 71.5471 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 84.4875 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2169.01 | Take Profit: 2176.95 | Stop Loss: 2165.04

COPPER

Copper prices rally to 11-month highs on China supply shortage.

Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange surged 1.5% on Friday and crossed the $9,000 a ton level for the first time since April 2023. One-month U.S. copper futures jumped 1.3% to $4.1022 a pound- an 11-month high. Both contracts were set to add over 5% this week- their best weekly gain so far in 2024. Copper’s rally was triggered chiefly by media reports stating that major Chinese copper smelters were planning to carry out joint production cuts, limiting the supply of refined copper.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.02 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.90 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.01 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.95 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.88 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 76.85 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 93.37 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.11 R2 : 4.19
  • S1 : 4.00 S2 : 3.91

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 4.02 | Take Profit: 4.11 | Stop Loss: 3.96

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.23%) at 2166.48, Silver is up (0.96%) at 25.03, Palladium is up (1.79%) at 1088.36, Platinum is up (1.03%) at 937.90, Brent Crude Oil up (0.48%) at 85.05, WTI Crude Oil down (0.43%) at 80.94 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CAD) Housing Starts (Feb) Forecast 227.0K, Previous 223.6K at 08:15. (CAD) Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jan) Forecast –0.6%, Previous 0.3% at 08:30.