. Daily Commodity Analysis - Commodity markets surge, expect bullish trends.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Commodity markets surge, expect bullish trends.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Commodity markets surge, expect bullish trends.

22 Apr 2024

Introduction

Gold prices start the week with a slight dip below the $2,400 mark, breaking a two-day winning streak. However, the downside appears limited as hopes for de-escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict boost investor confidence away from safe-haven assets. Speculations of major central bank rate cuts and looming global economic challenges provide support. Meanwhile, traders await key global PMIs and US macro data, influencing gold’s trajectory. Copper prices, on the other hand, surge to two-year highs due to supply concerns, while WTI oil prices decline amidst reduced geopolitical tensions. U.S. natural gas futures face downward pressure but anticipate a potential bullish turnaround driven by supply cuts and increasing demand forecasts.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price trades with modest losses below $2,400 mark, downside seems limited.

Gold price (XAU/USD) kicks off the new week on a weaker note and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak, though it remains confined in a familiar trading range held over the past week or so. Hopes for an Iran-Israel conflict de-escalation boost investors’ confidence and turn out to be a key factor driving flows away from the safe-haven precious metal. Apart from this, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer in the wake of still sticky inflation in the US exert additional pressure on the non-yielding commodity. The downside for the Gold price, however, seems cushioned amid speculations that major central banks will cut interest rates this year. Adding to this, worsening global economic conditions should contribute to limiting any meaningful depreciating move for the XAU/USD. Traders also seem reluctant and prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of this week’s release of flash global PMIs on Tuesday and important US macro data – the Advance Q1 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2357.6407 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2316.2930 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2221.2365 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2366.0406 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2314.2868 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2184.3471 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 64.8679 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 70.3521 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2360.28 | Take Profit: 2377.07 | Stop Loss: 2349.34

COPPER

Copper prices at 2-year highs on tight supply bets .

Among industrial metals, copper prices rose slightly on Monday, notching new peaks for 2024 as the prospect of tighter supplies- following stricter sanctions on Russian metal exports- kept prices high. Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.3% to $9,919.50 a ton, while one-month copper futures rose 0.4% to $4.5105 a pound. Both contracts were at around two-year highs. Other precious metals fell on Monday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.45 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.40 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.29 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.44 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.38 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 73.58 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 98.62 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.54 R2 : 4.68
  • S1 : 4.39 S2 : 4.25

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 4.439 | Take Profit : 4.540 | Stop Loss : 4.379

CRUDE OIL

WTI falls toward $81.00 as Israel and Iran downplay the risk of further escalation.

WTI Oil price depreciates on de-escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price trades around $81.20 per barrel, hovering around its monthly low of $81.05, marked on Thursday. The decline in crude oil prices can indeed be linked to eased geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, particularly following Reuters reports that Israel and Iran downplayed the risk of further escalation after Israel’s strike on Iran.Meanwhile, the passage of new sanctions on Iran’s Oil sector by the US House, as reported by Bloomberg on Saturday, could also have implications for Oil prices, and restrict its ability to export crude Oil. This can reduce global Oil supply and contribute to upward pressure on prices. However, the impact of such sanctions on Oil prices depends on various factors, including the extent of the sanctions, and the response of other Oil-producing countries.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 83.6745 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 83.5828 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.5079 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 84.3275 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 84.3199 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.1353 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 41.8534 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 15.1563 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9547 R2 : 85.6260
  • S1 : 78.5440 S2 : 76.8727

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 82.63 | Take Profit : 79.76 | Stop Loss : 85.07

NATURAL GAS

U.S. natural gas futures drifted lower last week.

However, some traders are attempting to build a case for a short-covering rally amidst a mix of supply reductions and increasing demand predictions driven by cooler weather forecasts. While the market continues to grapple with a significant oversupply, evidenced by gas stockpiles being 35% above seasonal norms, recent production cutbacks and shifting weather patterns suggest a volatile price environment ahead and perhaps a shift in sentiment. Recent declines in natural gas production, approximately 10% lower in 2024, have begun influencing market sentiment. Looking ahead, the U.S. natural gas market could be poised for a bullish turnaround in the short term although most of the move will be short-covering and probably some bottom-picking. As temperatures rise post-April, combined with a rebound in LNG feedgas flows, demand is expected to strengthen.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7125 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7162 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8216 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7181 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7043 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.7265 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 50.6227 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 48.0877 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8789 R2 : 1.9741
  • S1 : 1.5711 S2 : 1.4759

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 1.77 | Take Profit : 1.97 | Stop Loss : 1.65

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (1.11%) at 2365.11, Silver down (2.88%) at 27.83, Palladium down (0.75%) at 1020.79, Platinum up (0.07%) at 934.50, Brent Crude Oil down (0.98%) at 86.29, WTI Crude Oil down (1.02%) at 81.23 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CNY) PBoC Loan Prime Rate Forecast –3.45%, Previous –3.45% at 06:45. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 21:00.