. Daily Commodity Analysis - Copper Climbs Modestly, Yet Remains Below Recent Highs.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Copper Climbs Modestly, Yet Remains Below Recent Highs.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Copper Climbs Modestly, Yet Remains Below Recent Highs.

24 Apr 2024

Introduction

Amidst a mixed landscape, WTI crude oil prices hover around $83.25, largely unmoved, as opposing factors vie for influence. While easing geopolitical tensions offer a slight drawback, a promising demand outlook provides essential support. Traders await cues from US Durable Goods Orders and inventory data for market direction. Meanwhile, natural gas futures fluctuate following shifts in weather patterns and operational dynamics, with short-term growth prospects restrained but a bullish long-term outlook persists. Gold prices, above $2,300, seek momentum from US macro data amid a backdrop of eased geopolitical concerns and USD demand resurgence. Copper prices rise but remain below recent highs due to increased output plans from top producer Chile and weakened demand indicated by US PMI data.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI flat lines around $83.25 area, downside seems limited amid positive demand outlook.

WTI consolidates in a narrow range and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces.Easing geopolitical risks acts as a headwind, though improving demand outlook lends support.Traders look to US Durable Goods Orders and the official US inventory data for a fresh impetus.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices struggle to build on the overnight bounce from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near the $80.75 area and oscillate in a range during the Asian session on Wednesday. The commodity currently trades around the $83.25 region, nearly unchanged for the day, and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces. Concerns about a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased after Iran signaled that it has no plans to retaliate against the Israeli limited-scale missile strike. This reduces the risk premium from markets and acts as a headwind for Crude Oil prices. That said, the Israel-Hamas war, so far, has shown little signs of abating, keeping risks of Middle Eastern geopolitics in play and lending some support to the black liquid.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 83.6720 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 83.6078 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.6807 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 83.9275 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 84.5362 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.3928 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 50.5871 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 100.00 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9547 R2 : 85.6260
  • S1 : 78.5440 S2 : 76.8727

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 82.92 | Take Profit : 85.12 | Stop Loss : 81.61

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Weaken Amid Overnight Weather Shift.

U.S. natural gas futures are lower after an initial rise, hinting at potential market stabilization. However, continued buyer momentum is needed to surpass the down trending 50-day moving average that has influenced market directions since early November. This adjustment follows fluctuations in demand influenced by weather conditions and operational changes. Natural gas prices initially climbed due to the restart of Freeport LNG operations and increased demand driven by cooler weather. However, gains were short-lived as the market dipped on forecasts of milder weather.In the short term, the natural gas market is likely to experience restrained growth, influenced by weather-driven demand fluctuations and structural shifts in energy consumption. While immediate prospects seem limited, the long-term outlook remains bullish with anticipated production cuts fostering stronger market conditions.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7788 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7529 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8294 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7420 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7309 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.7320 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 60.4188 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 91.9081 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8789 R2 : 1.9741
  • S1 : 1.5711 S2 : 1.4759

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.98 | Take Profit : 2.21 | Stop Loss : 1.86

GOLD

Gold price flat lines above $2,300 mark, looks to US macro data for fresh impetus.

Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s bounce from over a two-week low – levels just below the $2,300 mark – and oscillates in a narrow range heading into the European session on Wednesday. The global risk sentiment remains supported by easing concerns about a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This, along with the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) dip-buying, bolstered by hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, acts as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. The current market pricing indicates that the US central bank will begin its rate-cutting cycle only in September amid still sticky inflation. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which helps revive the USD demand and caps the upside for the Gold price. Traders, however, might prefer to wait for this week’s key US macro data – the Advance Q1 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – for cues about the Fed’s rate cut path before placing fresh directional bets around the XAU/USD.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2341.1306 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2314.3347 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2227.6059 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2358.1067 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2325.9552 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2196.7739 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 55.9941 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 33.8308 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2329.85 | Take Profit : 2362.69 | Stop Loss : 2310.95

COPPER

Copper prices rise, but remain below recent peaks .

Among industrial metals, copper prices advanced on Wednesday, also benefiting from a softer dollar. But prices of the red metal still traded below recent two-year peaks, after top producer Chile signaled that it planned to increase output this year. The outlook for copper demand was also dented by weak U.S. PMI data, which showed an unexpected contraction in manufacturing activity. Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.8% to $9,817.50 a ton, while one-month copper futures rose 1.1% to $4.4710 a pound.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.44 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.42 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.32 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.46 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.41 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.32 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 59.62 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 28.59 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.49 R2 : 4.61
  • S1 : 4.38 S2 : 4.25

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 4.435 | Take Profit : 4.500 | Stop Loss : 4.400

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.03%) at 2320.91, Silver down (0.08%) at 27.25, Palladium up (0.2%) at 1022.32, Platinum up (0.94%) at 918.17, Brent Crude Oil down (0.034%) at 88.41, WTI Crude Oil up (0.21%) at 83.51 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) CPI (QoQ) (Q1) Forecast 0.8%, Previous 0.6%% at 07:00. (EUR) German Ifo Business Climate Index (Apr) Forecast 88.9, Previous 87.8 at 13:30. (USD) Durable Goods Order (MoM) (Mar) Forecast 2.5%, Previous 1.3% at 18:00. (CAD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) Forecast 0.0%, Previous 0.5% at 18:00.