. Daily Commodity Analysis - copper up, gold rises on rate cut hints.

Daily Commodity Analysis – copper up, gold rises on rate cut hints.

Daily Commodity Analysis – copper up, gold rises on rate cut hints.

11 Jul 2024

 Introduction

Oil prices inch higher on supply worries and a weak dollar, but concerns about China’s economy and upcoming US inflation data cap gains. Natural gas holds steady as traders weigh weather forecasts and export levels. Copper edges up with a softer dollar, but awaits further cues from China. Gold rises as Fed Chair Powell hints at possible rate cuts.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI sticks to modest intraday gains near multi-day top, just below $82.00 mark.

WTI attracts buyers for the second straight day and draws support from a combination of factors.A drop in US inventories, supply disruption worries and a softer USD act as a tailwind for Oil prices.China’s economic woes might cap any further gains ahead of the crucial US CPI report later today.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices build on the overnight recovery from the vicinity of the $80.00 mark, or a two-week low and gain some follow-through positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday. The uptick is supported by a combination of factors and lifts the commodity to a multi-day peak, around the $82.00 round figure in the last hour. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its forecast for relatively strong growth in global Oil demand this year and next. Adding to this, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels to 445.1 million barrels in the week ended July 5, far exceeding analysts’ expectations. This is seen underpinning Crude Oil prices amid a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 82.3470 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 81.6158 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.5733 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 82.7748 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 81.8371 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.4416 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 55.7995 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 46.2826 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 82.7869 R2 : 85.2028
  • S1 : 74.9658 S2 : 72.5499

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 81.74 | Take Profit : 84.29 | Stop Loss : 80.27

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Prices Steady as Heatwave Looms.

Natural gas futures are holding steady as traders weigh various factors influencing the market. Recent developments in weather patterns, LNG exports, and production trends are shaping the near-term outlook for traders.NatGasWeather forecasts intense heat across much of the western, southern, and eastern United States in the coming days.The market is anticipating a rebound in LNG demand as the impact of Hurricane Beryl subsides.Despite recent bullish factors, the rally in natural gas prices may face limitations. Strong resistance is anticipated at $2.652.However, the current range-bound trading suggests traders are cautious. Market participants should closely monitor weather patterns, LNG export levels, and domestic production, as these factors will be crucial in determining price direction in the coming weeks.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.3555 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.4455 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4120 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.3309 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.5318 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4904 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 37.4512 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 9.9670 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.8694 R2 : 3.0200
  • S1 : 2.3820 S2 : 2.2314

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2.46 | Take Profit : 2.24 | Stop Loss : 2.62

COPPER

Copper rises on softer dollar, more China cues awaited .

Among industrial metals, copper prices rose on Thursday, also benefiting from a softer dollar. But the red metal was nursing steep losses in recent sessions, following middling economic data from top importer China. Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.1% to $9,914.50 a tonne, while one-month copper futures rose 0.5% to $4.6147 a pound. Copper sank this week as inflation data from China largely underwhelmed markets, and raised concerns over a slowing economic rebound in the country. Trade data from China, due on Friday, was now awaited for more cues on the country.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.42 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.46 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.53 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.43 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 33.14 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 5.05 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.45 R2 : 4.65
  • S1 : 4.27 S2 : 4.11

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 4.43 | Take Profit : 4.22 | Stop Loss : 4.57

GOLD

Gold rises as Powell steers middle-way while market still price in rate cuts.

Gold rises as Powell sets a cautiously optimistic tone on his second day of testimony to lawmakers in Washington. Although he did not state when the Fed would propose to cut interest rates, he indicated it might be soon. Market-based gauges continue to show a high probability of a rate cut in September – a positive for Gold. Gold (XAU/USD) trades up almost half a percent in the $2,380s on Thursday as markets continue to foresee interest-rate cuts coming down the track. In his second day of testimony to US lawmakers, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell steered a middle way between cautious optimism that inflation would come down without causing too many job losses – achieving what economists call a “soft-landing” – while retaining a data-dependent vigilant approach to inflation.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2359.7977 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2349.2480 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2331.2260 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2356.4125 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2341.4176 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2344.3157 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 58.4337 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 79.5323 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2372.1823 R2 : 2395.9711
  • S1 : 2295.1711 S2 : 2271.3823

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2368.73 | Take Profit : 2390.91 | Stop Loss : 2354.15

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.56%) at 2384.29, Silver up (0.77%) at 31.04, Palladium down (0.01%) at 985.00, Platinum down (0.35%) at 985.56, Brent Crude Oil down (0.19%) at 85.21, WTI Crude Oil down (0.28%) at 82.17 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Jun) Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.1% at 02:00. (GBP) GDP (YoY) (May) Forecast 1.2% Previous 0.6% at 02:00. (GBP) GDP (MoM) (May) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.0% at 02:00. (USD) CPI (MoM) (Jun) Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.0% at 08:30. (USD) Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.2% at 08:30. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 1,860K, Previous 1,858K at 08:30