. Daily Commodity Analysis - Deciphering global markets amid tensions and uncertainties.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Deciphering global markets amid tensions and uncertainties.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Deciphering global markets amid tensions and uncertainties.

31 Jan 2024

Introduction

Oil prices decline on weak China data, impacting demand sentiment. Despite this, they are poised for their first monthly gain since September due to escalating Middle East conflicts causing supply concerns. Meanwhile, positive IMF forecasts boost crude oil prospects. In other markets, corn futures fall on weak demand outlook, and gold and silver prices respond to geopolitical tensions and await the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for further direction.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil falls on weak China data; set for first monthly gain since Sept.

Oil fell on Wednesday as lacklustre economic data in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, weighed on demand sentiment, but prices were set for their first monthly gain since September as broadening Middle East conflicts raised supply concerns. Crude oil prices may experience a positive impact following the recent update on global economic growth by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF has revised its forecast, indicating expectations of stronger growth, particularly in the economies of the United States and China.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 81.29 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.19 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.11 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 81.07 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.42 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 59.63 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 78.74 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.60 R2 : 82.82
  • S1 : 73.40 S2 : 71.18

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 81.15 | Take Profit : 83.99 | Stop Loss : 79.50

CORN

Corn Futures Fall on Weak Demand Outlook.

Corn for March delivery fell 1.5%, to $4.40 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, with grain traders keeping a general hands-off approach to trading as the Brazilian supply situation looks stable. Much of the selling seen in grains Monday came from fund traders, said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. Corn led the decline, with managed money limiting exposure as headlines remain quiet. China’s order for Evergrande Group to liquidate fueled concerns about the health of China’s economy, fanning worries about the country’s consumption prospects among analysts. China is the biggest consumer of U.S. grain exports, making its economic health a mover for futures prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.44 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.48 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.61 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.43 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.47 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.62 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 41.52 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 37.08 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.79 R2 : 4.85
  • S1 : 4.61 S2 : 4.56

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 480.25 | Take Profit : 460.67 | Stop Loss : 488.23

GOLD

Gold looks to Powell speech for a clear directional impetus.

Gold price is extending its pullback from a ten-day high of $2,049 reached in the early American trading on Tuesday, as the US Dollar is attracting fresh demand amid broad risk-aversion on the all-important US Federal Reserve interest rate decision day. Markets are sensing caution, as China’s economic concerns and escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions persist amid typical risk-averse trading heading into the Fed policy announcements. The tepid risk sentiment has revived the demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset, fuelling a further retreat in Gold price. Data on Tuesday showed US JOLTS Job Openings unexpectedly increased in December, suggesting that the labor market still remains resilient, dissuading the Fed from delivering aggressive rate cuts.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2029.35 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2030.55 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2021.52 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2026.12 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2029.90 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2032.70 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 52.55 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 55.55 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19
  • S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.54

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 2037.39 | Take Profit : 2061.40 | Stop Loss : 2024.23

SILVER

XAG/USD extends upside above $23.20 ahead of Fed policy.

Silver price jumps to near $23.20 as geopolitical tensions deepen.Forward action in the FX domain will be guided by the Fed’s monetary policy.Investors will focus on the US JOLTS Job Openings data in today’s session. Silver price (XAG/USD) climbs above $23.20 in the early European session. The white metal has capitalized on mounting Middle East tensions, which have improved appeal for safe-haven assets. However, forward action will be guided by the interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed), which will be announced on Wednesday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 23.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 22.86 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.81 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 23.11 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 22.86 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.81 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 58.56 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 64.99 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 23.81 R2 : 24.45
  • S1 : 23.18 S2 : 22.58

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 23.28 | Take Profit : 23.81 | Stop Loss : 22.94

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.02%) at 2037.50, Silver down (0.21%) at 23.10, Palladium up (0.04%) at 979.22, Platinum down (0.16%) at 923.64, Brent Crude Oil down (0.39%) at 82.18, WTI Crude Oil down (0.41%) at 77.50 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German Unemployment Change (Jan) Forecast –11K, Previous –5K at 03:55. (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.1% at 08:00. (USD) ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) Forecast 145K, Previous 164K at 08:15. (CAD) GDP (MoM) (Nov) Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.0% at 08:30. (USD) Fed Interest Rate Decision at 14:00. (USD) FOMC Press Conference at 14:30.