. Daily Commodity Analysis - Discover commodity market's latest vital insights.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Discover commodity market’s latest vital insights.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Discover commodity market’s latest vital insights.

23 Apr 2024

Introduction

Gold price remains subdued near $2,300, hovering at a two-week low amid easing tensions in the Middle East. Despite an initial dip following the attack on US forces, optimism about a de-escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict supports a positive risk sentiment, dampening demand for gold. Hawkish Fed expectations, alongside elevated US Treasury bond yields, further weigh on the precious metal, while traders await US economic data releases. Similarly, Silver (XAG/USD) struggles below $27.00 as risk-on sentiment prevails, prompting investors to shy away from safe-haven assets. WTI crude oil maintains around $82.00, with tensions in the Middle East subsiding and traders eyeing US PMI data for further direction.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price remains depressed near $2,300, over a two-week low amid easing Middle East tensions.

Gold price drifts lower for the second successive day amid receding geopolitical tensions. Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone near its lowest level in over two weeks through the early part of the European session on Tuesday, albeit manages to hold its neck above the $2,300 round figure. Despite the overnight attack on US forces in the Middle East, hopes that the Iran-Israel conflict will not escalate further remain supportive of a generally positive risk tone. Apart from this, growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer amid sticky inflation and a resilient economy undermines demand for the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations keep the US Treasury bond yields elevated and continue to act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD), which remains close to its highest level since November touched last week. This is seen as another factor exerting pressure on the Gold price for the second successive day, though speculations that major central banks will cut interest rates this year help limit deeper losses ahead of the flash US PMIs. Traders might also prefer to wait for the release of the Advance US Q1 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2342.1464 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2311.8219 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2223.0481 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2357.3650 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2318.6796 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2189.8131 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 52.6402 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 45.2898 | Neutral Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2293.36 | Take Profit : 2332.08 | Stop Loss : 2271.24

SILVER

XAG/USD attracts some sellers below $27.00 amid risk-on mood.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades on a softer note for the second consecutive day around $26.95 on Tuesday during the early European session. The easing fear of wider Middle East tensions improves market sentiment and creates a headwind for the precious metal. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for April, due later on Tuesday. The silver price drifts sharply lower to nearly three-week lows as concerns about a potential broader conflict in the Middle East fade, leading traders to reduce their precious metal positions and favour riskier assets. Iranian Foreign Minister stated on Friday that Iran does not plan to respond to Israel’s retaliatory strike, while Israeli authorities remained mostly silent. The absence of public statements afterward tends to imply that both sides are attempting to ease tensions.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 27.62 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 27.87 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 27.50 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 27.83 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 28.15 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 27.78 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 34.39 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 0 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 27.73 R2 : 29.04
  • S1 : 26.52 S2 : 25.20

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 27.31 | Take Profit : 26.24 | Stop Loss : 28.11

CRUDE OIL

WTI holds below $82.00 on easing Middle East tensions, hawkish Fed.

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $82.00 on Tuesday. The black gold edges lower on the day as the concerns about a wider Middle East war fade. Later on Tuesday, oil traders will take more cues from the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for April and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report. Iranian Foreign Minister said on Friday that Iran does not plan to respond to Israel’s retaliatory strike launched, while Israeli authorities remained mostly silent. The absence of public statements afterward tends to imply that both sides are attempting to ease tensions. WTI prices drop to nearly monthly low as Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran was smaller than had been feared. However, any escalating tensions between Israel and Iran could limit the WTI’s downside from its lower price levels. On the other hand, hope for Chinese demand might offer some relief to WTI prices as China is the world’s biggest oil importer.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 83.5894 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 83.5539 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.5792 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 84.1313 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 84.3891 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.2639 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 46.9189 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 78.92 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9547 R2 : 85.6260
  • S1 : 78.5440 S2 : 76.8727

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 82.70 | Take Profit : 84.92 | Stop Loss : 80.96

WHEAT

Wheat Futures Rise on Short-Covering.

Wheat for July delivery rose 3.8% to $5.88 1/2 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, with grain traders reacting to both geopolitical volatility and dry weather by covering steep short positions. Traders expect good spring weather to greatly increase the planted-corn area, Jack Scoville, vice president of The Price Futures Group, wrote in a Monday report. Drought seen in the Central Plains is expected to impact U.S. wheat production traders are anticipating that this afternoon’s Crop Progress report to show a decline in winter wheat crop ratings–although they are expected to stay higher from last year’s extremely low level.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 574.43 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 568.69 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 567.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 566.83 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 564.44 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 565.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 70.72 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 100 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 612.44 R2 : 651.03
  • S1 : 581.56 S2 : 544.68

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 586.71 | Take Profit : 629.59 | Stop Loss : 565.26

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.99%) at 2302.57, Silver down (1.33%) at 26.82, Palladium down (1.02%) at 997.69, Platinum down (0.73%) at 910.55, Brent Crude Oil up (0.60%) at 87.52, WTI Crude Oil up (0.22%) at 82.28 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German Manufacturing PMI Forecast –42.8, Previous –41.9% at 13:00. (GBP) Manufacturing PMI Forecast 50.3, Previous 50.3 at 14:00. (GBP) Service PMI Forecast 53.0, Previous 53.1 at 14:00. (USD) Manufacturing PMI (Apr) Forecast 52.0, Previous 51.9 at 19:15 (USD) Building Permits Forecast 1.458M, Previous 1.524M at 17:30. (USD) New Home Sales (Mar) Forecast 668K, Previous 662K at 19:30.