. Daily Commodity Analysis - Energy and Gold Markets in Turmoil, Prepare Investments

Daily Commodity Analysis – Energy and Gold Markets in Turmoil, Prepare Investments

Daily Commodity Analysis – Energy and Gold Markets in Turmoil, Prepare Investments

27 Nov 2023

Introduction:

In the latest developments in the commodity market, natural gas futures indicate a potential further decline, with a notable increase in open interest and a reversal from three consecutive daily declines. Meanwhile, gold remains above $2,010 per troy ounce, benefiting from a weakening US Dollar. Oil prices dip as Brent approaches $80 per barrel, awaiting cues from an upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Spot silver reaches a near three-month high amid shifting Federal Reserve rate hike expectations.

Natural Gas:

Natural gas futures scope for extra decline.

Analysing the latest data from CME Group regarding natural gas futures markets, there was a notable rise of approximately 3.2K contracts in open interest by the conclusion of the previous week. This marked a reversal from three consecutive daily declines. Conversely, trading volume decreased for the second consecutive day, now by over 54K contracts.

Natural gas prices hit multi-week lows, reaching around $2.800 on Friday. This decline marked the third consecutive week of retracement for the month. The daily pullback coincided with a rise in open interest, indicating additional weakness in the short term.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 2.91| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 2.93| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 3.03| Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 2.94| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 2.90| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 3.04| Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.33| Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator: 56.19| Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 2.99 | R2: 3.22
  • S1: 2.84| S2: 2.58

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell 2.75 | Take Profit: 2.58 | Stop Loss: 2.86.

Gold:

 XAU/USD is staying above the $2,010 mark amid a decline in the strength of the US Dollar.

The price of gold continues to rise as investors exercise caution in anticipation of a slew of US data. The 7.8% decline in China’s industrial profits could potentially undermine the positive sentiment resulting from the stimulus measures implemented by the People’s Bank of China.

The gold price sustains its level above $2,010 per troy ounce in the European session on Monday. The weakening of the US Dollar (USD), driven by growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has completed its interest rate hikes, is proving beneficial for the precious metal.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 2006.35 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 1993.63 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1980.84| Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 2005.29 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 1993.07| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1973.79| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 70.09 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 92.32| Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 2017.21 | R2: 2063.28
  • S1: 1984.25| S2: 1951.99

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion:  Stop Buy: 2026.53 | Take Profit: 2063.08 | Stop Loss: 2006.46.

Elsewhere In the Commodity Market.

Oil prices experienced a decline, with Brent approaching the $80 per barrel mark, as investors awaited an OPEC+ meeting scheduled later in the week. Spot silver (XAG/USD) achieves a nearly three-month peak, driven by a declining U.S. dollar and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Gold up (0.63%) at 2014.85, Silver up (1.93%) at 24.77, Palladium up (0.81%) at 1080.80, Platinum up (0.88%) at 938.82, Brent Crude Oil down (0.53%) at 80.04, WTI Crude Oil down (0.65%) at 75.06 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Building Permits Forecast 1.487M, Previous 1.471M at 18:30.

(EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:30.

(USD) New Home Sales (Oct) Forecast 721K, Previous 759K at 20:30