. Daily Commodity Analysis - Explore commodity markets amid economic shifts.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Explore commodity markets amid economic shifts.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Explore commodity markets amid economic shifts.

22 Mar 2024

Introduction

Gold price continues its downward trajectory amid a strengthening US Dollar on Friday. The Fed’s projection of three rate cuts in 2024 could limit losses for gold, as traders await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for short-term cues. The optimistic US economic outlook and hopes for a Gaza ceasefire weigh on the safe-haven metal. Meanwhile, copper retreats from 11-month highs amidst growing concerns over China’s economic growth and potential US sanctions. Additionally, WTI crude oil prices remain subdued below the mid-$80.00s amid ongoing talks for a Gaza ceasefire and a strengthened US Dollar. Corn futures closed higher on Thursday, supported by USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showing increased bookings despite a slight week-on-week decline.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price extends its steady intraday descent amid broad-based USD strength.

Gold price edges lower on Friday amid some follow-through US Dollar buying interest. The Fed’s projected three rate cuts in 2024 might cap the USD and limit losses for the metal. Traders look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for short-term opportunities. Gold price (XAU/USD) continues losing ground through the early part of the European session on Friday and now looks to extend the overnight retracement slide from the record peak. The optimistic outlook for the US economy lifts the US Dollar (USD) to a three-week high, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining the commodity. Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone and hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza exert additional downward pressure on the safe-haven precious metal. The Federal Reserve (Fed), meanwhile, projected a less restrictive policy stance and three interest rate cuts for 2024, lifting bets for an eventual move at the June policy meeting. This is reinforced by a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields, which might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and lend support to the non-yielding Gold price. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any further depreciating move for the XAU/USD.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2162.0547 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2135.7663 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2087.8616 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2168.4716 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2131.7560 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2067.6664 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 65.6889 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 72.2332 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2175.52 | Take Profit: 2197.31 | Stop Loss: 2162.44

COPPER

Copper pulled off 11-mth peaks as China jitters grow.

Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange slid 1% to $8,882.0 a ton, while one-month U.S. copper futures sank 1.2% to $4.0175 a pound. Both contracts fell sharply from 11-month highs hit earlier this week. Copper was also pressured by worsening sentiment towards China, with the country’s stock markets seeing steep declines on Friday amid concerns over slowing economic growth and more potential U.S. sanctions. But the outlook for copper markets remained tight, especially as recent reports showed major Chinese copper refiners planned to curb output this year.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.044 | Negative Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.03 | Negative Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.98 | Positive Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.04 | Negative Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.06 | Negative Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.96 | Positive Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 45.09 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 3.9 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.06 R2 : 4.14
  • S1 : 3.95 S2 : 3.82

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 4.02 | Take Profit: 3.90 | Stop Loss: 4.11

CRUDE OIL

WTI flirts with a weekly trough, and and remains depressed below the the mid-$80.00s.

WTI drifts lower for the third straight day amid hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza. Expectations for tightening global supply should help limit any further losses. The fundamental backdrop warrants caution for aggressive bearish traders. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices remain under some selling pressure for the third successive day on Friday and traded near the weekly low, around the $80.30 region during the Asian session. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that gaps are narrowing in the ongoing talks aimed at reaching a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages, easing concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East. This, along with some follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying, bolstered by the optimistic US economic outlook, turn out to be key factors exerting downward pressure on US-denominated commodities, including Crude Oil prices. The downside, however, seems cushioned in the wake of worries about tightening global supply.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.7733 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.8270 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.0708 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 80.6874 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.6272 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 77.2980 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.3154 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 60.3831 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
  • S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 80.43 | Take Profit: 83.05 | Stop Loss: 79.04

CORN

Corn Finished Thursday with Gains.

Front-month corn futures were off their highs for the Thursday close but were still up 1 ½ to 2 cents across the front months. May print an 8 ¼ cent range for the day from ½ to +4 ¾ cents. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report had 1.19 MMT of corn booked during the week that ended 3/14. That was at the high end of the expected range but was down 8% for the week and was under the 3.1 MMT sold during the same week last year. Total commitments were up to 41.7 MMT, which is 19% ahead of last year’s pace. EIA reported ethanol producers averaged 1.046 million barrels per day through the week that ended 3/15. That was a 22k bpd increase for the week. Ethanol stocks were 227k barrels looser at 26 million barrels.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.2841 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.2655 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.3301 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.2952 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.2362 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.2938 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 53.2734 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 78.9302 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.3863 R2 : 4.5007
  • S1 : 4.0157 S2 : 3.9013

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 460.51 | Take Profit: 433.84 | Stop Loss : 480.30

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.66%) at 2166.76, Silver is down (0.43%) at 24.59, Palladium is down (0.04%) at 1009.96, Platinum is up (0.42%) at 911.24, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.03%) at 85.73, WTI Crude Oil down (0.02%) at 81.05 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) Actual Forecast –0.4%, Previous 3.4% at 12:30. (CAD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) Forecast –0.4%, Previous 0.9% at 18:00. (EUR) German Ifo Business Climate Index (Mar) Forecast 85.9, Previous 85.5 at 14:30 (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 18:30.