. Daily Commodity Analysis - Explore gold defiance, copper's challenge, oil rally, gas amid turmoil.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Explore gold defiance, copper’s challenge, oil rally, gas amid turmoil.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Explore gold defiance, copper’s challenge, oil rally, gas amid turmoil.

01 Feb 2024

Introduction

Gold prices defy a Fed stance on prolonged higher interest rates, gaining ground amid safe-haven demand fueled by Middle East tensions. The precious metal’s ascent is tempered by a resurgent dollar. In contrast, copper retreated from a one-month peak, impacted by mixed signals from China’s economic outlook. Oil prices rise as the U.S. Federal Reserve hints at potential rate cuts and China unveils measures to support its property market. Natural gas futures see modest gains despite bearish weather forecasts and lower industrial demand attributed to a Freeport LNG outage.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold prices rise even as Fed shoots down early rate-cut hopes.

Gold prices rose on Thursday and were undeterred by the Federal Reserve stating that it will likely keep interest rates higher for longer, while safe-haven buying amid an ongoing conflict in the Middle East also aided the yellow metal. The Fed’s comments spurred a sharp reversal in risk-driven markets, particularly stocks, on Wednesday. This in turn fueled increased safe-haven demand for gold. The yellow metal was also aided by increased demand as a conflict between U.S.-led forces and the Yemen-based Houthi Group worsened. Further gains in the yellow metal were held back by a sharp rebound in the dollar, which traded close to seven-week highs.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2032.12 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2031.90 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2022.44 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2028.32 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2029.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2033.75 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.73 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 63.81 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.38 R2 : 2087.55
  • S1 : 2010.57 S2 : 1992.40

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2037.55 | Take Profit: 2057.85 | Stop Loss: 2024.77

COPPER

Copper prices cool after rallying to 1-mth high, China outlook mixed.

Among industrial metals, copper prices fell on Thursday as traders locked in profits from a rally to one-month highs in the prior session. A recent rally in the red metal was driven chiefly by increased optimism over China, as the world’s largest copper importer rolled out more stimulus measures to support an economic recovery. But data prints for January showed sustained economic weakness. Official purchasing managers index data released on Wednesday showed the manufacturing sector remained in contraction, while a private survey released on Thursday pointed to stagnating growth in the sector.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.85 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.82 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.84 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.82 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.59 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 31.93 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.87 R2 : 3.95
  • S1 : 3.81 S2 : 3.74

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 3.88 | Take Profit: 3.95 | Stop Loss: 3.84

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil nudges higher on Fed rate cut expectations.

Oil prices climbed on Thursday, supported by signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve on a possible start to rate cuts and as China unveiled new support measures for its embattled property market. “The immediate reason for an oil rebound is likely the market’s expectations for rate cuts this year after Fed’s Powell indicated a peak of the rate hiking cycle’ in his speech,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that interest rates had peaked and would move lower in coming months, with inflation continuing to fall and an expectation of sustained job and economic growth.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.90 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 80.08 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.06 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 81.06 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 79.48 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.72 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.93 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 62.72 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.35 R2 : 85.56
  • S1 : 76.22 S2 : 74.01

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 79.50 | Take Profit: 82.54 | Stop Loss: 77.77

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Prices Futures Consolidating Amid Mild Weather.

Natural gas futures slightly rise, and weather forecasts are bearish. Mild temperatures lead to very light national gas demand. Freeport LNG outage contributes to lower industrial gas demand. U.S. natural gas futures are experiencing a slight uptick, consolidating for the third consecutive session. Despite this, weather forecasts suggest a bearish outlook. NatGasWeather highlights the warmest pattern in the next 15 days of the past 50 years, potentially reducing heating demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.41 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.50 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.59 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.39 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.64 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.55 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 40.02 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 10.35 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.07 R2 : 3.33
  • S1 : 2.20 S2 : 1.93

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2.22 | Take Profit: 2.01 | Stop Loss: 2.38

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.21%) at 2043.26, Silver is down (0.19%) at 22.87, Palladium is down (0.68%) at 973.33, Platinum is down (0.85%) at 917.26, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.17%) at 80.63, WTI Crude Oil up (0.16%) at 75.97 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 03:00. (EUR) German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Forecast 45.4, Previous 43.3 at 03:55. (EUR) CPI (YoY) (Jan) Forecast 2.7%, Previous 2.9% at 05:00. (GBP) BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jan) Forecast 5.25%, Previous 5.25% at 07:00. (GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 07:30. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 213K, Previous 214K at 08:30. (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Forecast 47.2, Previous 47.4 at 10:00.