. Daily Commodity Analysis - Expose WTI surge, corn slump, metals' volatility causes.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Expose WTI surge, corn slump, metals’ volatility causes.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Expose WTI surge, corn slump, metals’ volatility causes.

23 Jan 2024

Introduction

WTI crude oil rallies to around $74.70 per barrel fueled by global energy supply concerns, exacerbated by Ukraine’s drone strike on Russian fuel terminal Novatek and US production disruptions. In corn futures, fractional gains persist amid varied export figures. Gold prices rise, influenced by economic uncertainties, while silver (XAG/USD) plunges to near $22 as Fed rate-cut optimism fades, with attention now on upcoming US Q4 GDP data.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI improves to nearly $74.70 over global energy supplies, and air strikes against Houthis.

WTI price moves higher on concerns over global supply disruptions. Ukraine conducted a drone attack on a Russian fuel terminal Novatek. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price extends its gains for the second successive session, improving to near $74.70 per barrel during the Asian session on Tuesday. The rise in Crude oil prices is attributed to concerns over global energy supplies, sparked by a drone strike on Russia’s Novatek by Ukraine. Additionally, disruptions in Crude production from the United States (US) due to extreme cold weather have contributed to the upward pressure on oil prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 73.51 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 73.17 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 74.52 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 73.13 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 72.83 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 73.56 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 56.37 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 83.82 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 75.38 R2 : 77.52
  • S1 : 68.47 S2 : 66.33

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 75.49 | Take Profit: 79.38 | Stop Loss: 73.12

CORN

Fractional Gains for Monday Corn Futures.

Corn ended the Monday session off the highs, but still fractionally in the black. March printed a 4c range from -1 ½ cents to +2 ½ cents. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections data showed 713.3k MT (28.1 MB) of corn was shipped during the week that ended 1/18. That was down 25% for the week and was 2% below the same week last year. USDA added 11.5k MT to Mexico and 59k MT to Japan from past reports, which put the season’s total export at 14.7 MMT (578.8 MB). That remains 30% ahead of last year’s pace. Friday’s FAS data had 17.1 MMT (673 MB) of unshipped sales on the books as of 1/11. Algeria is tendering for 160k MT of feed corn. Wire sources had South Korea’s MFG as having bought 66k MT of feed corn via tender.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.45 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.51 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.44 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.54 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 33.18 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 27.40 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.79 R2 : 4.85
  • S1 : 4.61 S2 : 4.56

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 489.67 | Take Profit: 461.40 | Stop Loss: 511.42

GOLD

Gold prices rise before more economic cues.

Gold prices advanced on Tuesday, tracking mild weakness in the dollar as traders hunkered down before a slew of key U.S. economic readings this week, although the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates still kept gains subdued. Traders were now seeking more cues on the U.S. economy, amid waning bets that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates by as soon as March 2024. This notion had weighed heavily on gold earlier in January, pushing prices of the yellow metal as low as $2,000 an ounce. But gold rebounded from its 2024 lows, as worsening geopolitical conditions in the Middle East spurred safe-haven buying. Bullion prices were also supported by bets that the Fed will loosen monetary policy eventually this year.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2029.71 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2032.88 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2020.08 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2029.43 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2040.44 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2027.26 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 49.55 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 37.54 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19
  • S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.55

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2035.08 | Take Profit: 2063.46 | Stop Loss: 2017.84

SILVER

XAG/USD plunges to near $22 as Fed rate-cut optimism fades.

Silver price plummets to near $22 as the Fed is expected to reduce interest rates from May. The USD Index struggles for a firm footing despite easing Fed rate-cut bets. Silver price declines further towards $21.88. Silver price (XAG/USD) nosedived to near $22.00 on Monday, more than 2.5% down from its previous close. The white metal is heavily dumped by the market participants as trades dialed back expectations of early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This week, market participants will focus on the United States Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published on Thursday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 22.31 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 22.64 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.93 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 22.22 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 22.63 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.93 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 40.08 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 60.7 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 22.67 R2 : 23.30
  • S1 : 21.99 S2 : 21.27

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 22.45 | Take Profit: 21.77 | Stop Loss: 22.84

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.47%) at 2030.62, Silver is up (1.12%) at 22.32, Palladium is up (0.63%) at 942.39, Platinum is up (2.05%) at 908.97, Brent Crude is up (0.20%) at 80.22, WTI Crude Oil up (0.31%) at 74.99 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) BoJ Interest Rate Decision Forecast –0.10%, Previous –0.10% at 08:00. (JPY) BoJ Outlook Report (YoY) at 08:30. (JPY) BoJ Press Conference at noon (CAD) New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Dec) Forecast 0.0%, Previous –0.2% at 19:00.