. Daily Commodity Analysis - Fed shocks oil, gas, gold markets.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Fed shocks oil, gas, gold markets.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Fed shocks oil, gas, gold markets.

23 Feb 2024

Introduction

Oil prices are poised to end a two-week winning streak as the U.S. Federal Reserve signals a potential delay in interest rate cuts. Despite concerns, healthy fuel demand and supply issues may revive prices. Meanwhile, Natural Gas faces a significant drop after a 12% rally, impacted by a strengthening U.S. Dollar. Gold retreats from a two-week high amid a hawkish Fed outlook, while Silver continues its four-day decline below $23.00, influenced by rising Treasury bond yields.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil set to snap winning streak after Fed says in no rush to cut US rates.

Oil prices were on track on Friday to snap a two-week winning streak after the U.S. central bank indicated interest rate cuts could be delayed by at least two more months. Still, indications of healthy fuel demand and supply concerns could revive prices in the coming days. Both benchmarks are on track to end the week lower, after two straight weeks of gains. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers should delay interest rate cuts by at least another couple of months to see if a recent uptick in inflation signals stalling progress toward price stability or is just a bump in the road, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 82.5518 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 81.7374 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.8565 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 82.7283 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 81.4421 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.7487 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.5705 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 89.8614 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.3603 R2 : 85.5650
  • S1 : 76.2230 S2 : 74.0183

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 81.60 | Take Profit: 83.28 | Stop Loss: 80.76

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas sinks with US Dollar undercutting upbeat LNG sentiment.

Natural Gas retreats firmly after its 12% intraday rally. Traders send Natural Gas lower while the US Dollar roars in an inverse correlation move. The US Dollar Index erases all intraday losses and is back in the green on its way to 104. Natural Gas (XNG/USD) is dropping the ball after its big gain on Wednesday, gaining over 12%. The decline this Thursday by over 4% comes very unlucky with Natural Gas not getting enough time to consolidate above $1.80. With that support level snapping this quickly on the back of the US Dollar strengthening, it will scare early bird traders away and could see Natural Gas decline further to lower levels near $1.70 with a squeeze taking place.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7901 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.9415 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.2330 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7230 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.9468 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.3383 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 33.6940 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 28.2982 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.0654 R2 : 3.3340
  • S1 : 2.1960 S2 : 1.9274

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.70 | Take Profit: 1.52 | Stop Loss: 1.83

GOLD

Gold price hangs near the multi-day low, but the downside remains limited amid modest USD weakness.

Gold price retreats further from a nearly two-week high amid the Fed’s hawkish outlook. The risk-on mood also undermines the XAU/USD, though geopolitical risks limit losses. A subdued USD price action also warrants caution before placing aggressive bearish bets. Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through selling on Friday and retreats further from a nearly two-week high set the previous day. Hawkish FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday, along with comments by a slew of influential Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, suggested that the US central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2019.5412 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2021.7746 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2021.3437 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2013.3544 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2024.4832 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2033.3416 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 48.1113 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 60.4028 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
  • S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2017.92 | Take Profit: 2005.17 | Stop Loss: 2028.24

SILVER

Silver Price Bearish-harami spurs XAG/USD’s fall beneath $23.00.

Silver falls to $22.75, continuing its losing streak for a fourth day due to rising yield pressures. Bearish harami and dip below key DMAs suggest more declines, eyeing $22.51 as next support. A rebound over $23.00 could push Silver to retest DMAs, aiming for $24.00 resistance. Silver’s falls for the fourth straight day, remaining below the $23.00 figure, as US Treasury bond yields advance, courtesy of strong economic data from the United States, preventing the Federal Reserve (Fed) from beginning to ease policy soon. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $22.75, down 0.55%.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 22.82 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 22.97 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 22.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 22.90 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 22.97 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 22.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 43.44 | Neutral Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 0.00 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 23.31 R2 : 24.07
  • S1 : 22.59 S2 : 21.90

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 22.77 | Take Profit: 22.10 | Stop Loss: 23.17

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.29%) at 2031.71, Silver is up (1.02%) at 23.11, Palladium is down (0.76%) at 962.78, Platinum is down (0.29%) at 902.90, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.84%) at 82.97, WTI Crude Oil down (0.95%) at 77.86 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q4) Actual –1.9%, Forecast –0.2%, Previous 0.0% at 03:15. (NZD) Core Retail Sales (QoQ) Actual –1.7%, Forecast –0.1%, Previous 1.0% at 03:15. (EUR) German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Actual –0.3%, Forecast –0.3%, Previous –0.1% at 12:30.