. Daily Commodity Analysis - Forecast oil, corn, gold, silver trends.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Forecast oil, corn, gold, silver trends.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Forecast oil, corn, gold, silver trends.

19 Mar 2024

Introduction

Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as Russia’s decision to increase supplies and slower-than-expected demand in sectors like jet fuel prompted caution among traders ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision. Brent crude futures for May delivery edged down 15 cents to $86.74 a barrel by 0708 GMT, following a surge to four-month highs previously. Meanwhile, gold prices hovered above $2,150 before the Fed meeting, while silver retreated toward $25.00 amidst anticipation of major central bank decisions.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil slips as Russia lifts supplies, jet fuel demand stirs caution.

Oil prices dipped on Tuesday due in part to the prospect of rising supply from Russia, slower-than-expected downstream demand in sectors such as jet fuel, and cautious trading ahead of the Fed’s decision on U.S. interest rates. The Brent crude oil futures contract for May delivery slipped 15 cents to $86.74 a barrel as of 0708 GMT. Both benchmarks reached four-month highs in the previous session, buoyed by lower crude exports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq and signs of stronger demand and economic growth in China and the U.S.”The market may be in consolidation mode awaiting signals on rate cuts from this week’s FOMC meeting.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 84.6094 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 83.6334 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 82.2464 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 84.0420 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 83.3897 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 81.5589 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 65.6034 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 92.5927 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.8928 R2 : 85.7069
  • S1 : 78.0199 S2 : 76.2058

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 85.04 | Take Profit: 87.26 | Stop Loss: 83.80

CORN

Export sales push corn futures higher.

Corn prices started Monday with fractional gains across the front months. The yellow one was up 2 ¾ to 3 cents on Friday. That left the May contract with a net 2 ¾ cent loss for the week. March did leave an expiration gap down near $4.20 on the continuation chart. CME reported OI dropped in the old crop futures for a net -12.5k contracts overall. Options open interest increased on Friday, with 8.7k new calls added and 6.9k new puts in play. CFTC reported major short covering from the funds during the week that ended 3/12. Managed money traders dropped 37.6k short contracts (8% of existing); along with some net new buying interest that reduced their net short to a 9-week low of 256k contracts. The commercial corn hedgers however added short hedges with +50k new shorts vs 7.2k new longs during the week. That flipped them back to net short by 31,068 contracts.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.2621 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.2492 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.3323 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.2746 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.1979 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.3064 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.5540 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 37.78 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.3863 R2 : 4.5007
  • S1 : 4.0157 S2 : 3.9013

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 459.80 | Take Profit: 438.57 | Stop Loss: 477.58

GOLD

Gold prices hover above $2,150 ahead of the Fed meeting.

Gold prices fell slightly in Asian trade on Tuesday. Still, before a key Federal Reserve meeting this week, they remained above key support levels as markets remained largely averse towards precious metals. Bullion prices recovered some lost ground this week, retaking the $2,150 an ounce support level on Monday as uncertainty over the Fed’s stance persisted. But the yellow metal also remained well below record highs earlier in March. Strength in the dollar was a key weight on gold prices, as anticipation of the Fed meeting and dovish signals from the Bank of Japan kept traders largely biased towards the greenback. The dollar index rose to a two-week high on Tuesday after clocking strong gains over the past two sessions.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2148.8137 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2120.7161 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2076.2264 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2163.3370 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2109.1278 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2058.9439 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 66.3483 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 77.2445 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2148.00 | Take Profit: 2163.44 | Stop Loss: 2138.44

SILVER

XAG/USD retreats toward $25.00.

Silver prices faced a downturn on Monday, responding to a strong dollar and steady Treasury yields. This movement occurs amidst heightened anticipation for the forthcoming policy decisions from major global central banks, notably the U.S. Federal Reserve. Silver price dips were affected by an uptick in US Treasury yields and a stronger Dollar ahead of the Fed’s decision. Staying above $25.00 may boost bullish momentum, eyeing $26.00 resistance. Silver’s price dropped toward $25.00 a troy ounce on Monday as US Treasury bond yields rose ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield advance underpins the Greenback, a headwind for the precious metal. Therefore, XAG/USD trades at around $25.03, down by 0.57% at the time of writing.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 24.98 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 24.78 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 24.18 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 25.02 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 24.78 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 23.95 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.56 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 25.25 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 25.31 R2 : 25.92
  • S1 : 24.59 S2 : 23.90

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 24.48 | Take Profit: 25.24 | Stop Loss: 24.01

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.24%) at 2155.13, Silver is down (0.33%) at 24.95, Palladium is down (2.26%) at 1009.69, Platinum is down (0.67%) at 905.77, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.09%) at 86.80, WTI Crude Oil down (0.09%) at 82.08 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) Forecast –7.5%, Previous 1.4% at 00:30. (JPY) BoJ Press Conference at 02:00 . (EUR) German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) Forecast 20.6, Previous 19.9 at 06:00. (USD) Building Permits (Feb) Forecast 1.500M, Previous 1.489M at 08:30. (CAD) Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) Previous 0.1% at 08:30. (CNY) PBoC Loan Prime Rate Forecast 3.45%, Previous 3.45% at 21:15.