. Daily Commodity Analysis- Gas, Corn Soar, Oil Rises, Gold Steady.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gas, Corn Soar, Oil Rises, Gold Steady.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gas, Corn Soar, Oil Rises, Gold Steady.

02 Feb 2024

Introduction

U.S. natural gas futures are on the rise as the market anticipates the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) storage report, expected to reveal a significant draw. Projections suggest a draw of approximately -200 to -203 billion cubic feet (Bcf), surpassing the five-year average. Mild weather conditions contribute to lower gas demand, creating volatility in the market. In other commodities, corn futures see midweek gains, while oil prices rise after OPEC+ maintains current output policies. Gold prices remain steady at $2,050, benefiting from a weakened dollar ahead of the nonfarm payrolls data release.

Markets In Focus Today – NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Edge Up Ahead of EIA Report.

EIA report likely shows natural gas storage draw amid low demand and production downturn due to Freeport LNG issues. EIA report to reveal significant natural gas storage draw. Mild U.S. weather patterns lead to low gas demand. U.S. natural gas futures are experiencing an uptick as the market braces for the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly storage report. Expected volatility surrounds the report, with predictions pointing to a significant draw of around -200 to -203 billion cubic feet (Bcf), exceeding the five-year average of -185 Bcf. Contributing factors include varied temperatures across the U.S., with warmer conditions in the west and east and cooler temperatures from the Plains to Texas.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.36 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.47 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.57 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.35 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.60 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.53 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 36.41 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 5.74 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.07 R2 : 3.33
  • S1 : 2.20 S2 : 1.93

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2.20 | Take Profit: 2.01 | Stop Loss: 2.34

CORN

Corn Futures Rally for Midweek Gains.

Corn firmed up through the afternoon portion of Wednesday trading and ended the day fractionally mixed. Basis tightened on Wednesday with a national average cash corn rally. The weekly EIA data showed ethanol producers averaged 991k barrels of output per day during the week that ended 1/26. That was a nice uptick from the week prior, which had seen the lowest output in over 2 years. That was also just the 3rd week of the MY with sub 1m barrels per day. Ethanol stocks from the report were shown as 24.27m barrels, which was back down by 1.5 million. NASS will release the monthly Grain Crushings report, which will show December’s corn used for ethanol after Thursday’s close.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.44 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.47 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.60 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.44 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.45 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.61 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 41.63 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 55.06 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.60 R2 : 4.68
  • S1 : 4.35 S2 : 4.28

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 478.80 | Take Profit: 460.67 | Stop Loss: 492.57

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil gains after OPEC+ maintains output cuts.

Oil prices rose on Friday following a decision by OPEC+ to keep its oil output policy unchanged, although benchmarks were headed for weekly losses amid unsubstantiated reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. On Thursday, two OPEC+ sources said the group has kept its oil output policy unchanged and will decide in March whether or not to extend the voluntary oil production cuts in place for the first quarter. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, have output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in place for the first quarter, as announced in November.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.26 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 79.81 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 79.95 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 80.91 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 79.39 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 78.63 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 47.05 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 38.00 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.35 R2 : 85.56
  • S1 : 76.22 S2 : 74.01

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 79.98 | Take Profit: 77.35 | Stop Loss: 81.98

GOLD

Gold prices are steady at $2,050 as the dollar slides before nonfarm payroll data.

Gold prices steadied near a two-week high on Friday, crossing key levels as unwavering bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve weighed on the dollar, with nonfarm payrolls data due later in the day set to provide more cues. The yellow metal largely brushed off signals from the Fed that interest rate cuts will come later than expected this year, instead capitalizing on losses in the dollar and moving closer toward 2024 peaks. But gains in gold prices cooled on Friday as markets hunkered down before the payrolls data, which is largely expected to factor into the Fed’s plans for interest rates.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2038.07 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2035.14 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2024.17 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2032.08 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2031.05 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2035.05 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 58.62 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 75.97 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.38 R2 : 2087.55
  • S1 : 2010.57 S2 : 1992.40

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2057.10 | Take Profit: 2078.91 | Stop Loss: 2044.32

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.03%) at 2055.11, Silver is down (0.01%) at 23.15, Palladium is down (0.14%) at 962.39, Platinum is up (0.32%) at 915.48, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.42%) at 79.03, WTI Crude Oil up (0.43%) at 74.14 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) Forecast 187K, Previous 216K at 08:30. (USD) Unemployment Rate (Jan) Forecast 3.8%, Previous 216K at 08:30. (USD) Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4% at 08:30.