. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gas falters, oil soars, gold defends, silver struggles.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gas falters, oil soars, gold defends, silver struggles.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gas falters, oil soars, gold defends, silver struggles.

18 Jan 2024

Introduction

Natural gas futures declined on easing selloff amid warmer forecasts. Despite cold weather, prices drop as southern pipeline areas recover from recent spikes. Meanwhile, oil rises on OPEC demand outlook and Middle East tensions. Gold faces selling pressure above $2,000 due to a stronger US dollar and robust economic data, diminishing rate cut expectations. Silver struggles near $22.50 amid strong US Retail Sales and Industrial Production, influenced by cautious Fed rate cut remarks.

Markets In Focus Today – NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Settle Lower as Selloff Eases.

Natural gas futures settle lower as the market looks to warmer forecasts toward the end of the month. “The cold weather is doing little to help futures prices as cash prices in many southern pipeline areas (Texas and Oklahoma) have retreated from their spike highs late last week. “While some freeze-offs have occurred, supplies to most areas have been adequate as many utilities were vigilant in securing inventories before the weather hit.” February gas settles down 1% at $2.870/mm-Btu, but up 11 cents from its intraday low.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.863 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.012 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.825 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.824 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.012 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.825 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 47.46 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 21.02 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.973 R2 : 3.346
  • S1 : 2.724 S2 : 2.396

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2.822 | Take Profit: 3.151 | Stop Loss: 2.653

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil up on OPEC demand estimate, Mideast tensions, and US output.

Oil prices rose on Thursday as OPEC forecast relatively strong growth in global oil demand over the next two years, while the market also eyed disrupted U.S. oil production amid a cold blast and tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude prices remain broadly stuck in a range as they have been over the past two weeks, as market participants struggle to weigh mixed demand-supply dynamics with prevailing geopolitical tensions. From a geopolitical perspective, the persistent supply disruption in the Red Sea is serving as a deterrent to a more substantial decline in crude oil prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 77.56 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.77 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 77.93 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 77.40 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.77 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 77.94 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 49.79 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 43.15 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.36 R2 : 83.15
  • S1 : 78.03 S2 : 75.76

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 77.51 | Take Profit: 80.36 | Stop Loss: 75.95

GOLD

XAU/USD remains on the defensive above $2,000.

Gold price attracts some sellers on the higher US dollar and bond yield Retail Sales came in well above expectations in December. Traders decreased their bets on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March. Gold price (XAU/USD) drops to the $2,000 mark during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The downward momentum of yellow metal is supported by the strong economic data in the US, which dampened expectations of an imminent cut in interest rates. At press time, the gold price is trading at $2,007, up 0.07% on the day.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2014.87 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2033.96 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2044.25 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2013.45 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2033.96 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2044.34 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 35.18 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 6.56 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2056.08 R2 : 2087.41
  • S1 : 2016.63 S2 : 1984.14

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2016.63 | Take Profit: 1984.14 | Stop Loss: 2041.00

SILVER

XAG/USD struggles amid strong US data, Fed’s caution stance.

Silver price down 1.58%, nearing $22.50, amid strong US Retail Sales and Industrial Production data. Waller’s comments on cautious rate cuts prompt market to rethink Fed easing expectations. Silver price stays depressed for the second straight day, though it appears to have bottomed at around the $22.50 area for the third occasion during the last couple of months, as it loses 1.58% after hitting a daily high of $22.94. XAG/USD falters, bottoms at around $22.50 as investors adjust Fed rate cut trajectory.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 22.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 22.93 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 23.24 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 22.63 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 22.94 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 23.24 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 35.34 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 6.43 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 22.68 R2 : 23.26
  • S1 : 22.28 S2 : 21.85

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 22.65 | Take Profit: 21.85 | Stop Loss: 23.14

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.33%) at 2012.67, Silver is up (0.37%) at 22.62, Palladium is up (1.43%) at 927.64, Platinum is up (0.99%) at 890.22, Brent Crude is up (0.60%) at 78.35, WTI Crude Oil up (0.88%) at 73.12 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) Employment Change (Dec) Forecast 17.6K, Previous 61.5K at 06:00. (JPY) Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) Forecast –0.9%, Previous 1.3% at 10:00. (ECB) ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting at 18:00. (USD) Building Permits (Dec) Forecast 1.426M, Previous 1.560M at 19:00. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 270K, Previous 202K at 19:00. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:45.