. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gas Futures Surge, Gold Declines to 2-Week Low.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gas Futures Surge, Gold Declines to 2-Week Low.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gas Futures Surge, Gold Declines to 2-Week Low.

07 Nov 2023

Introduction:

In the commodity market, there are various dynamics at play. Natural gas prices are experiencing additional losses as open interest and volume increase, while gold is losing ground due to sustained USD strength. Meanwhile, silver is under selling pressure, and crude oil prices have declined by 1% due to mixed China trade data. On the other hand, copper prices are rebounding despite economic contraction in Europe.

Natural Gas:

Extra losses in the pipeline.

Taking into account the recent data from CME Group regarding the natural gas futures market, open interest increased for the fourth consecutive session at the beginning of the week, adding approximately 24.3K contracts. Concurrently, volume saw a rise of about 180.1K contracts following three days of consecutive declines.

As a result of the growing open interest and volume, natural gas prices continued their corrective decline on Monday, suggesting that the downward trend is likely to persist in the very near future. The next support level is now identified at the mid-October lows, approximately in the $2.90 per MMBtu range.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 3.290| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 3.378| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 3.314| Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 3.290| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 3.413| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 3.274| Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 37.98 | Selling Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator: 5.00| Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 3.417 | R2: 3.631
  • S1: 3.208| S2: 2.945

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 3.142 | Take Profit: 2.945 | Stop Loss: 3.294.

Gold:

Gold continues losing ground on sustained USD buying, ahead of Fed speakers.

For the second day in a row, the price of gold is facing downward pressure. This decline can be attributed to a slight strengthening of the US Dollar, which has pushed the precious metal to its lowest level in nearly two weeks.

The price of gold (XAU/USD) continued its decline for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, and it maintained its downward trajectory during the first half of the European trading session. This decline is primarily driven by the US Dollar (USD) strengthening further from its lowest level since September 20, which was reached on Monday.

As a result, the price of gold has dropped to a level near a two-week low, around the $1,965 mark in the last hour. Additionally, the lack of significant developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict is also contributing to a decrease in demand for the safe-haven precious metal.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 1976.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 1983.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 1969.25 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 1977.42 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 1986.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 1978.88 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 39.92 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator: 14.44| Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 1990.84 | R2: 2021.40
  • S1: 1963.50| S2: 1920.08

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1953.59 | Take Profit: 1919.94 | Stop Loss: 1978.99.

Elsewhere In the Commodity Market.

Silver continues to face selling pressure for the second consecutive day on Tuesday. Crude oil prices decline by 1% as a combination of mixed China trade data offsets the impact of supply cuts. Copper prices experience a recovery despite the economic downturn in Europe.

Gold down (0.49%) at 1967.83, Silver down (1.09%) at 22.75, Palladium down (1.11%) at 1092.67, Platinum down (0.09%) at 901.47, Brent Crude Oil down (1.97%) at 83.50, WTI Crude Oil down (2.02%) at 79.19 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov) Actual 4.35%, Forecast 4.35%, Previous 4.10% at 09:00.

(AUD) RBA Rate Statement at 09:00.

(EUR) German Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) Actual –1.4%, Forecast –0.1%, Previous –0.2% at 12:30.

(USD) FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 22:30