. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gas Prices Fluctuate Amid Inflation Hopes.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gas Prices Fluctuate Amid Inflation Hopes.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gas Prices Fluctuate Amid Inflation Hopes.

25 Jun 2024

Introduction

Gold stuck around $2,300 with inflation data eyed. Uncertainty over US interest rates and inflation kept investors cautious. The focus shifts to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge due Friday, expected to show some cooling but remain elevated. Silver and oil prices also dipped, while natural gas extended losses on a bearish outlook.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold prices range-bound around $2,300 amid rate jitters, inflation watch.

Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Tuesday, sticking to a tight trading range in the low $2,300s as recent strength in the dollar and anticipation of key inflation data kept traders averse to the yellow metal. Metal markets took limited relief from an overnight drop in the dollar, as the greenback still remained in favor amid uncertainty over U.S. interest rates.The yellow metal fell into a trading range around the low $2,300 an ounce level over the past week, as traders grew uncertain over the prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts this year. While inflation data for May was somewhat encouraging, it still showed price pressures remaining relatively heady. Unexpectedly strong purchasing managers index prints for June also sparked concerns that strength in the U.S. economy will keep rates high for longer. Focus this week is squarely on PCE price index data, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The reading is due on Friday and is widely expected to show inflation cooling slightly but remaining well above the central bank’s 2% annual target.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2331.1037 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2333.2961 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2318.8004 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2327.8001 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2330.7468 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2340.9113 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 49.8759 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 41.7966 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2417.4629 R2 : 2458.2274
  • S1 : 2285.4964 S2 : 2244.7319

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2315.11 | Take Profit : 2362.19 | Stop Loss : 2287.51

SILVER

XAG/USD falls toward $29.50, followed by a 50-day EMA.

Silver price may find support around the 50-day EMA at $29.01 level.Analysis of the daily chart suggests a bearish bias as the Silver price consolidates within the descending channel pattern.The upper boundary of the descending channel at $30.50 could act as a key resistance.Silver price inches lower to near $29.60 per troy ounce during the early European session on Tuesday. Analysis of the daily chart indicates a bearish bias as the XAG/USD pair consolidates within the descending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned below the 50 level, suggesting a confirmation of a downward trend. The momentum indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests a bearish bias for Silver. This configuration indicates that the overall trend might still be positive as the MACD line is above the cent-reline. However, the momentum is weakening as the MACD line is below the signal line. If the MACD line crosses below the center line, it would further confirm a strengthening downward trend.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 29.65 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 29.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 29.75 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 29.81 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 29.68 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 29.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 48.01 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 24.28 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 30.71 R2 : 32.30
  • S1 : 29.20 S2 : 27.57

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 28.94 | Take Profit : 27.57 | Stop Loss : 30.05

CRUDE OIL

WTI consolidates gains near $82.00 amid hope for strong summer driving demand.

WTI hovers around $82.00 amid the softer US dollar on Tuesday. The renewed hopes of a summertime upswing in fuel demand and geopolitical risks support the WTI price. The expectation that the Fed will delay the rate-cutting cycle might drag the black gold lower. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $82.00 on Tuesday. The rise of the WTI price is bolstered by the hope for a strong summer driving demand and oil supply concerns amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine could endanger crude flows from the region, which also underpin the WTI price. TD Securities’s senior commodity strategist, Ryan McKay, said that supply risks are now back in focus as tensions are building on the Israel-Lebanon border. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the most intense phase of the assault against Hamas in Gaza is close to ending while stressing the broader war against Hamas wages on, per CNN. Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated Monday that Kyiv attacked around 30 Russian oil refineries, terminals, and bases, but did not provide a time range for the strikes.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.3248 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.4436 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.3743 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 80.3190 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.3036 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.3806 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 59.3152 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 92.1025 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.3846 R2 : 81.6628
  • S1 : 76.2468 S2 : 74.9686

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 80.73 | Take Profit : 83.10 | Stop Loss : 79.20

NATURAL GAS

Natural gas futures decline for a third session.

U.S. natural gas futures are under pressure for the third consecutive session, reacting to last week’s significant drop and a bearish fundamental outlook. The market’s technical picture shows continued weakness, with futures trading below the 200-day moving average and approaching the 50-day moving average, indicating potential further declines.Natural gas futures continued to decline, with prices dropping for the sixth time in seven sessions last Friday. This drop was driven by robust production levels, particularly from the Appalachian region, which mitigated the impact of extreme heat across much of the United States.Given the strong production levels and ample supply, the short-term outlook for natural gas remains bearish.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.7666 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.6918 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.4455 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.7875 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.6910 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.3478 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 58.6393 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 57.3447 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.7527 R2 : 3.0177
  • S1 : 1.8947 S2 : 1.6297

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 2.92 | Take Profit : 3.14 | Stop Loss : 2.80

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.11%) at 2330.67, Silver up (0.16%) at 29.58, Palladium up (1.38%) at 989.05, Platinum up (0.41%) at 1001.41, Brent Crude Oil down (0.43%) at 84.78, WTI Crude Oil down (0.55%) at 81.24 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CAD) Core CPI (MoM) (May) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.2% at 08:30. (USD) CB Consumer Confidence (Jun) Forecast 100.0, Previous 102.0 at 10:00.