. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gas Prices Surge, Silver Hits High - Investor Challenges Ahead

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gas Prices Surge, Silver Hits High – Investor Challenges Ahead

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gas Prices Surge, Silver Hits High – Investor Challenges Ahead

12 Oct 2023

Introduction:

In the realm of commodities, natural gas prices continue their upward trajectory amid a backdrop of market volatility. Recent developments, including Israel’s production cutbacks, a gas pipeline leak in Finland, colder weather in Northern Europe, and the potential for Australian LNG worker strikes, have contributed to the price surge. Meanwhile, in the world of precious metals, silver (XAG/USD) flirts with a two-week high at around $22.20-30, signalling bullish momentum but caution is advised near the $22.30 resistance point. Furthermore, gold hits a two-week high near $1900, benefitting from a weakening dollar, while oil experiences a decline due to increasing US stockpiles, alleviating supply concerns. These developments paint a dynamic picture in the diverse commodity market landscape.

Natural Gas:

Natural gas prices rising further.

Yesterday saw a significant increase in the price of natural gas as oil prices stabilised. The natural gas market has seen several shocks. Israel cut back on some of its exports and production once the conflict with Hamas broke out. Finland is looking into a gas pipeline leak that might have been caused by damage from an outside drone. Northern Europe’s weather has turned colder, which has increased demand for heating. Lastly, there’s a chance that Australian LNG employees will go on strike again. Yesterday saw a rise in the 1M TTF future that was almost equal to EUR50/MWh, the highest since the spring, but still far behind where it was at this time last year.

Technical Overview :

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 3.35| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 3.34 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 3.21| Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 3.35 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 3.37| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 3.17| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.26 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 22.96| Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 3.44 | R2: 3.60
  • S1: 3.31| S2: 3.04

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 3.22 | Take Profit: 3.04 | Stop Loss: 3.33.

Silver:

XAG/USD refreshes two-week high, flirts with $22.20-30 support break point.

On Thursday, silver starts to go up and reaches a nearly two-week high.

Bulls should exercise some care while setting for further gains, as the technical situation suggests.

A decline below $21.60-55 will indicate that the recovery’s momentum has slowed.

On Thursday, silver rises for the second day in a row—also the fourth day in the previous five—and reaches a nearly two-week high in the early going of the European session. But the white metal is still below the strong horizontal support breakpoint at $22.30, which has since turned into resistance, so bullish traders should proceed with some care.

Technical Overview :

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 22.04 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 21.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 22.06 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 22.04 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 21.56 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 22.15 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 59.08 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 97.55| Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 22.21 | R2: 23.30
  • S1: 21.54| S2: 20.75

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy : 22.50 | Take Profit: 23.30 | Stop Loss: 22.00.

Elsewhere In the Commodity Market.

Gold hits 2-week high, withing striking range of $1900 as dollar slide. Oil falls further on US stock build, easing supply concerns.

Gold up (0.36%) at 1880.85, Silver up (0.74%) at 22.15, Palladium down (0.1%) at 1169.00, Platinum up (0.76%) at 891.69, Brent Crude Oil up (0.82%) at 86.53, WTI Crude Oil down (0.59%) at 84.98 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.3% at 18:00.

(USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 210K, Previous 207K at 18:00.

(USD) Crude Oil Inventories Forecast 0.492M, Previous –2224M at 20:30.