. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gas surges, Silver resists, Oil stabilizes

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gas surges, Silver resists, Oil stabilizes.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gas surges, Silver resists, Oil stabilizes.

03 Jan 2024

Introduction:

The commodities market witnesses dynamic shifts as the New Year begins, marked by a bullish trend in Natural Gas Futures driven by January’s cold weather prospects. Silver faces resistance at $24 amidst heightened demand for safe havens, while gold prices dip with the dollar’s resurgence ahead of the Fed minutes. Additionally, oil prices stabilize in Asian trade after earlier noteworthy movements. Stay tuned for updates on these market developments.

Natural Gas:

The onset of the New Year sees a bullish turn in Natural Gas Futures, with traders closely monitoring the potential impact of January cold weather.

Natural gas futures experienced a surge at the beginning of 2024 following updated forecasts indicating extended cold weather into mid-January. However, the uncertainty remains regarding whether this bullish momentum will last beyond the usual New Year’s resolution period.

Traders are closely watching the natural gas market ahead of the upcoming Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report scheduled for release at 15:30 GMT. As per a Wall Street Journal survey, the projected 2.2% rise in February’s natural gas futures to $2.490/MMBtu is primarily influenced by the anticipated below-average draw of 78 billion cubic feet (Bcf), which would result in a total stockpile adjustment to 3,499 Bcf.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 2.558| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 2.507| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 2.464| Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 2.587| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 2.507| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 2.464| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 51.91| Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 47.63| Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 2.603 | R2: 2.855
  • S1: 2.487| S2: 2.283

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2.642 | Take Profit: 2.855 | Stop Loss: 2.511.

SILVER:

XAG/USD encounters resistance around $24 as the US Dollar reaches its weekly peak.

The silver price is challenging to maintain levels above $24.00 amid an increased demand for safe-haven assets. Investors eagerly await the release of the FOMC minutes, Manufacturing PMI, and labor market data.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) gradually declines after struggling to maintain levels above the $24.00 resistance during the early New York session. The white metal experiences pressure as investors shift towards the US Dollar.

In the upcoming period, investors will direct their attention to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes scheduled for Wednesday. These minutes from the December monetary policy meeting will offer a comprehensive insight into the rationale behind the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 23.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 23.99 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 23.83| Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 23.74 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 23.99| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 23.83| Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 38.64 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator: 15.49| Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 24.19 | R2: 24.98
  • S1: 23.50| S2: 22.47

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion:  Stop Sell: 23.24 | Take Profit: 22.47 | Stop Loss: 23.82.

Elsewhere In the Commodity Market.

In Asian trading on Wednesday, oil prices showed minimal fluctuations following significant movements earlier in the week. Gold prices decline as the dollar rebounds ahead of the release of Fed minutes.

Gold is up (0.18%) at 2062.24, Silver is down (0.39%) at 23.55, Palladium is up (1.40%) at 1090.84, Platinum is up (0.37%) at 985.88, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.70%) at 75.40, WTI Crude Oil down (0.81%) at 69.87 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German Unemployment Change (Dec) Forecast 20K, Previous 22K at 14:25.

(USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) Forecast 47.1, Previous 46.7 at 20:30.

(USD) JOLTs Job Openings (Nov) Forecast 8.850M, Previous 8.733M at 20:30.