. Daily Commodity Analysis - Geopolitics boost gold, silver, oil prices.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Geopolitics boost gold, silver, oil prices.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Geopolitics boost gold, silver, oil prices.

19 Apr 2024

Introduction

Gold prices climb above $2,410 as tensions escalate following reports of Israeli strikes on Iran, heightening risk aversion. The surge is tempered by a stronger US Dollar fueled by hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Concurrently, Silver (XAG/USD) reaches $28.60 amidst geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening Dollar. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil nears $85.00 amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions, with concerns over potential oil supply disruptions.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

XAU/USD rises above $2,410 after reports of an Israeli attack on Iran.

Gold price rises as risk aversion intensifies following reports of Israeli missiles striking a site in Iran. Iran’s Fars News Agency reported explosions at the central Isfahan airport. The gains in the US Dollar could limit the advance of the Gold prices. Gold price surged to nearly $2,410 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Friday. The safe-haven yellow metal gains ground as risk aversion sweeps across the financial markets following confirmation from ABC News that Israeli missiles struck a site in Iran, exacerbating tensions in the Middle East. On the US Dollar’s front, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials conveyed hawkish messages on Thursday, leading to a surge in US Treasury yields and the Greenback, consequently curtailing the upward momentum of non-yielding assets like Gold. The stronger USD renders bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2354.6367 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2310.4269 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2215.0592 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2362.6135 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2304.1926 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2177.2854 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 71.5607 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 70.6066 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2374.33 | Take Profit: 2389.09 | Stop Loss: 2365.30

SILVER

Silver (XAG) Soars to $28.60 Amid Weaker DXY.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) recently surged to an intra-day high of approximately $28.60, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and a declining US Dollar. The ongoing instability in the Middle East, particularly the increasing hostilities between Israel and Iran, has escalated the demand for safe-haven assets such as silver. Concurrently, a bearish correction in the US Dollar, highlighted by the US Dollar Index (DXY) losing ground to drop to $105.85 (losing approx. 0.50%) amid lower US Treasury yields, has made silver more attractive to investors holding other currencies. The weakening US Dollar continues to be a significant factor behind silver’s bullish performance. As the dollar, which lost nearly 0.50% to trade at $105.85, becomes less expensive in other currencies, commodities priced in dollars, like silver, become more accessible to international investors, thus boosting demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 28.32 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 28.99 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 27.46 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 28.30 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 28.38 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 27.42 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 53.99 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 4.46 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 28.60 R2 : 29.81
  • S1 : 27.56 S2 : 26.80

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 27.58 | Take Profit: 28.87 | Stop Loss: 26.84

CRUDE OIL

WTI surges to $85.00 amid Israel-Iran tensions.

WTI snaps the three-day winning streak near $85.00 on Friday. Israel retaliates as missiles strike a site in Iran, boosting the black gold price. The expectation that the US Fed will delay interest rate cuts to September might cap the WTI’s upside. Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $85.00 on Friday. The black gold gained traction on the day amid the escalating tension between Israel and Iran after a US official confirmed that Israeli missiles had hit a site in Iran. On Friday, ABC News reported that explosions were heard at an airport in the Iranian city of Isfahan but the cause was not immediately known. Several flights were diverted over Iranian airspace. Over the weekend, Iran unleashed hundreds of drones and missiles in retaliation for a purported Israeli raid on its Syrian embassy building. The tension between Israel and Iran heightened concerns of a wider conflict in the Middle East, triggering the fear of oil supply disruption.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 84.3014 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 83.8743 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.5373 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 84.9060 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 84.3242 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.0504 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.1482 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 24.7936 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9547 R2 : 85.6260
  • S1 : 78.5440 S2 : 76.8727

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 82.14 | Take Profit: 85.37 | Stop Loss: 80.01

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Hold Onto Weather-Driven Gains as Storage Print Comes In-Line.

Natural gas futures gained on Thursday, supported by colder forecasts for next week and a government inventory report that showed supplies did not grow faster than expected. Looking ahead, the natural gas market is expected to see increased volatility. Although there is a temporary reduction in production and exports, upcoming cold weather systems across the U.S. are likely to boost domestic demand significantly. These factors, combined with the current storage levels and ongoing adjustments in LNG operations, suggest a bearish to neutral outlook for U.S. natural gas prices in the short term. Traders should prepare for potential price adjustments as the market reacts to unfolding weather conditions and storage updates.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7064 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7136 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8249 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7202 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7002 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.7310 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 50.1918 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 43.5168 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8789 R2 : 1.9741
  • S1 : 1.5711 S2 : 1.4759

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.77 | Take Profit: 1.98 | Stop Loss: 1.64

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.15%) at 2383.63, Silver is up (0.46%) at 28.34, Palladium is down (0.31%) at 1020.38, Platinum is up (0.01%) at 939.61, Brent Crude Oil is up (1.40%) at 88.34, WTI Crude Oil up (1.72%) at 83.26 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) Forecast –0.3%, Previous –0.0% at 11:30. (GBP) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) Previous 0.2% at 11:30