. Daily Commodity Analysis - Global tensions, deals shape today's markets.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Global tensions, deals shape today’s markets.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Global tensions, deals shape today’s markets.

26 Apr 2024

Introduction

WTI crude oil prices rally above $83.50, propelled by a delicate balance between disappointing US GDP figures and escalating geopolitical tensions. With eyes on potential Israeli action in Gaza, WTI trades near $83.60 on Friday, rebounding after initial sell-offs triggered by lackluster GDP data. Amidst concerns over sluggish economic growth and persistent inflation, speculation arises on Federal Reserve interest rate policies. Meanwhile, US natural gas futures remain stable ahead of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s storage report, expected to reveal significant inventory growth.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI rebounds above $83.50 as market weighs disappointing US GDP data against geopolitical fears.

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $83.60 on Friday. The black gold edges higher as the market weighed the weaker-than-expected US economic growth data against a potential geopolitical risk from a looming Israeli invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah. WTI prices face some sell-off following the GDP report from the Commerce Department on Thursday. The US economy expanded at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter (Q1) of 2024 as inflation rose at a faster pace. The advanced US GDP grew by 1.6% on an annualized basis in the first quarter (Q1) in 2024, compared to a 3.4% growth in Q4 2023. This reading came in below the market estimation of 2.5%. Additionally, the inflation in the United States remains elevated and it might trigger the speculation that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates before September.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 83.6264 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 83.5886 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 81.8192 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 83.5298 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 84.6431 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.6395 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 52.3443 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 39.3188 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9547 R2 : 85.6260
  • S1 : 78.5440 S2 : 76.8727

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 83.52 | Take Profit : 85.60 | Stop Loss : 82.50

NATURAL GAS

US natural gas futures remained steady.

US natural gas futures held steady after experiencing a notable drop in the previous session. This stability is observed as traders await the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly storage report, which is anticipated to unveil a considerable uptick in natural gas stockpiles.Analysts are predicting a notable increase in natural gas storage, with projections ranging from 79 to 89 billion cubic feet (Bcf), significantly above the five-year average of 59 Bcf. The near-term outlook for the natural gas market remains bearish, influenced by elevated storage levels and diminished demand. However, upcoming warmer months could slightly tighten the market as cooling needs rise, potentially providing some support to prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7598 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7458 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8201 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7413 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7401 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.7338 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 51.4951 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 53.7427 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8789 R2 : 1.9741
  • S1 : 1.5711 S2 : 1.4759

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 1.91 | Take Profit : 1.64 | Stop Loss : 2.12

GOLD

Gold price trades with modest gains near multi-day top, focus remains on US PCE Price Index.

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers for the second straight day on Friday and trades just below the overnight swing high heading into the European session. The US GDP report released on Thursday pointed to a significant loss of growth momentum at the start of 2024 and an unwelcome pickup in inflation, which, in turn, is seen as lending some support to the precious metal. The uptick, however, lacks bullish conviction amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar (USD) buying, bolstered by hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Investors seem convinced that the US central bank will delay cutting interest rates amid still sticky inflation, which keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated and helps revive the USD demand. Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets contributes to capping gains for the safe-haven Gold prices. Traders now look to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path and determine the next leg of a directional move for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2340.0368 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2318.4183 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2235.9472 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2353.7076 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2336.2213 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2209.8487 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 60.0659 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 32.3893 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2336.54 | Take Profit : 2368.76 | Stop Loss : 2316.80

COPPER

Copper prices rebound to 2-year highs, BHP-Anglo deal eyed .

Among industrial metals, copper prices capitalized on a weaker dollar and rebounded to two-year highs. Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.8% to $9,983.50 a ton, while one-month copper futures rose 0.7% to $4.5745 a pound. Focus was now on a nearly $39 billion bid by top miner BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) for smaller copper miner Anglo American PLC (LON:AAL), which could potentially create the world’s biggest copper miner. But reports showed that Anglo’s board was largely dismissive of the offer. The prospect of tighter markets remained in play after Chinese copper refiners signaled production cuts. Stricter Western sanctions on Russian metal exports also heralded tighter markets.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.51 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.47 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.36 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.49 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.47 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.36 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 71.2 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 76.18 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.59 R2 : 4.75
  • S1 : 4.37 S2 : 4.16

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 4.423 | Take Profit : 4.598 | Stop Loss : 4.322

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.75%) at 2348.80, Silver up (0.99%) at 27.69, Palladium up (0.12%) at 984.22, Platinum up (1.18%) at 917.78, Brent Crude Oil down (0.15%) at 87.85, WTI Crude Oil down (0.09%) at 83.66 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) BoJ Outlook Report (YoY) at 08:00. (JPY) BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 08:00. (JPY) BoJ Interest Rate Decision Forecast 0.10%, Previous 0.0% at 08:00. (CAD) Manufacturing Sales (MoM) Previous 0.7% at 18:00. (USD) Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.3% at 18:00.