. Daily Commodity Analysis - Global uncertainty hits WTI, Natural Gas, Gold, Copper.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Global uncertainty hits WTI, Natural Gas, Gold, Copper.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Global uncertainty hits WTI, Natural Gas, Gold, Copper.

19 Jan 2024

Introduction

WTI crude oil faces indecision below $74.00, struggling to extend a two-day uptrend amid mixed fundamentals. Positive demand outlook and Middle East supply worries offer support. Natural gas futures decline for a third day due to warmer weather forecasts and smaller-than-expected withdrawals. Gold remains subdued amidst uncertainty over Fed rate cuts and elevated US bond yields. Copper prices feel the pressure from China’s economic weakness, adding to concerns about softened demand in 2024, especially in the electric vehicle sector. Market movements hinge on global economic dynamics and geopolitical tensions.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI lacks firm intraday direction, remains below $74.00 mark amid mixed fundamental cues.

WTI Oil prices struggle to attract follow-through buying and consolidate during the Asian session on Friday. Optimistic demand forecasts and concerns over disruptions in Middle East supplies lend support to Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to build on a two-day-old uptrend and oscillate in a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Friday. The commodity remains below the $74.00/barrel mark, though remains on track to register modest weekly gains in the wake of optimistic demand forecasts. Meanwhile, concerns over disruptions in Middle East supplies remained in play as the US-led forces continue to clash with the Iran-backed Houthi group in the Red Sea.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 72.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 72.86 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 74.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 72.54 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 72.75 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 73.64 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 54.25 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 74.37 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 75.38 R2 : 77.52
  • S1 : 68.47 S2 : 66.33

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 73.81 | Take Profit : 76.40 | Stop Loss : 72.36

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Sink on Below-Forecast Storage Draw.

Natural gas futures fall for a third straight day as weather forecasts beyond the current cold spell turn warmer, and withdrawals for the previous week were smaller than expected. Natural gas for February delivery falls 6% to $2.697/mmBtu, a two-week low. The IEA said gas in underground storage decreased by 154 billion cubic feet in the week to Jan. 12, reaching 3,182 Bcf, versus an expected draw of 163 Bcf in a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. Inventories were 12.4% above their year-earlier level and 11% above the five-year average, the EIA says.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.73 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.70 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.88 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.71 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.64 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 48.38 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 33.06 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.60 R2 : 2.71
  • S1 : 2.22 S2 : 2.11

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 2.66 | Take Profit : 2.44 | Stop Loss : 2.81

GOLD

Gold price remains on the defensive amid Fed rate cut uncertainty, elevated US bond yields.

Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s modest recovery gains and oscillates in a narrow trading range heading into the European session on Friday. Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s modest recovery gains and oscillates in a narrow trading range heading into the European session on Friday. Investors continue to pare their bets for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which leads to a further rise in the US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, allows the US Dollar (USD) to stand tall near its highest level since December 13 touched earlier this week and seems to cap the upside for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2031.31 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2034.35 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2019.58 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2029.99 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2043.87 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2024.40 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 48.97 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 22.80 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19
  • S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.55

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2024.75 | Take Profit : 2061.88 | Stop Loss : 2002.71

COPPER

Copper prices remain pressured by China weakness.

Among industrial metals, copper prices fell slightly on Friday, and were set for a muted finish to the week amid persistent concerns over top importer China. Prices of the red metal had started 2024 on a dour note, and saw fresh selling pressure this week following softer-than-expected economic growth readings from China, the world’s biggest copper importer. Weakness in China added to concerns that copper demand will soften this year, as markets also grew wary of declining global demand for electric vehicles.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.756 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.763 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.813 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.749 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.764 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.813 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 52.04 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 93.31 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.786 R2 : 3.863
  • S1 : 3.719 S2 : 3.657

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 3.774 | Take Profit : 3.842 | Stop Loss : 3.735

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.23%) at 2027.58, Silver up (0.27%) at 22.79, Palladium up (0.61%) at 945.04, Platinum up (0.74%) at 913.89, Brent Crude up (0.29%) at 79.29, WTI Crude Oil up (0.26%) at 74.14 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) National Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) Actual 2.3%, Forecast 2.3%, Previous 2.5% at 05:00. (GBP) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) Actual –3.2%, Forecast –0.5%, Previous 1.3% at 12:30. (ECB) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:30. (CAD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) Forecast –0.1%, Previous 0.6% at 19:00. (USD) Existing Home Sales (Dec) Forecast 3.82M, Previous 3.82M at 20:30. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:45.