. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold and Copper Dip, WTI Rises.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold and Copper Dip, WTI Rises.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold and Copper Dip, WTI Rises.

02 Jul 2024

Introduction

Gold prices dipped in Asia as investors awaited interest rate clues from the US Fed and Jerome Powell’s speech. Copper prices fell further on weak China sentiment. Oil prices rose on expectations of higher summer demand. Natural gas futures dropped sharply due to long liquidation and rising production.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold prices tick lower with Powell, payrolls in focus.

Gold prices fell slightly in Asian trade on Tuesday, remaining in a tight trading range as anticipation of a slew of cues on U.S. interest rates kept traders largely averse towards metal markets. The yellow metal was nursing a fall through June, as fears of high U.S. interest rates pushed up the dollar and Treasury yields. Gold also remained stuck around $2,300 an ounce.Gold muted with more rate cues on tap .Gold remained range-bound with focus largely on a slew of cues on interest rates due this week. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at a European Central Bank conference later on Tuesday, although the Fed Chair is unlikely to provide any new cues on interest rates.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2326.5217 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2328.8901 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2319.1837 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2327.5127 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2326.5255 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2337.3599 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 50.1888 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 47.7040 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2372.1823 R2 : 2395.9711
  • S1 : 2295.1711 S2 : 2271.3823

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 2337.15 | Take Profit : 2368.29 | Stop Loss : 2316.39

COPPER

Copper sinks further amid weak China sentiment .

Among industrial metals, copper prices sank further on Tuesday as sentiment towards major importer China remained largely negative. Concerns over a slowdown in global economic growth also weighed heavily on prices. Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange steadied at $9,644.50 a tonne, after falling sharply on Monday, while one-month copper futures extended losses, falling to $4.4065 a pound. Mixed purchasing managers index data from China offered differing cues on an economic recovery in the country. The Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum- a meeting of high-level officials that is set to take place in July- is now set to offer more cues on the country.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.42 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.63 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.53 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.43 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 33.14 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 5.05 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.44 R2 : 4.64
  • S1 : 4.25 S2 : 4.05

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 4.42 | Take Profit : 4.22 | Stop Loss : 4.55

CRUDE OIL

WTI rises above $83.00 due to expected summer demand.

WTI price extends gains due to increased expectations for higher US Oil demand during the summer travel season.American Automobile Association projects a 5.2% increase in travel, with car travel alone rising by 4.8% this year.Oil prices may gain ground as recent US inflation data raised the expectations of the Fed reducing rates in 2024.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price extends gains for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, trading around the two-month high near $83.10 per barrel. Crude Oil prices appreciate due to heightened expectations for rising fuel demand from the summer travel season. US Oil demand is expected to increase as the summer travel season peaks with the Independence Day holiday this week. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), travel during this period is projected to be 5.2% higher than in 2023, with car travel alone rising by 4.8% compared to the previous year, Reuters reports.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 81.7215 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.5875 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.8932 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 81.7239 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.7792 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.3144 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 66.3436 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 91.0449 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 82.7869 R2 : 85.2028
  • S1 : 74.9658 S2 : 72.5499

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 82.82 | Take Profit : 85.30 | Stop Loss : 81.40

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Pressured by Long Liquidation After Breaching Key Support.

U.S. natural gas futures drop significantly as traders evaluate weather, storage, and production.High pressure dominates southern U.S., raising gas demand; moderate weather in the north.Rising production rates and cooler weather forecasts for Midwest contribute to bearish outlook.A decisive break below the $2.625 mark has prompted aggressive long liquidation, signaling potential further declines if production continues to rise and temperatures moderate.Rising production rates continue to exert downward pressure on natural gas prices. The market’s inability to break above recent highs, combined with elevated storage levels, suggests a bearish outlook. Given the high storage levels and rising production, the short-term outlook for natural gas prices remains bearish. The market’s recent performance, unable to surpass recent highs, points to potential further declines.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.5740 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.6056 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4515 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.6275 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.7043 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4190 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 40.5433 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 1.4102 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.8694 R2 : 3.0200
  • S1 : 2.3820 S2 : 2.2314

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2.53 | Take Profit : 2.31 | Stop Loss : 2.70

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.05%) at 2330.88, Silver down (0.35%) at 29.33, Palladium up (0.92%) at 984.56, Platinum up (0.88%) at 985.59, Brent Crude Oil up (0.59%) at 87.12, WTI Crude Oil up (0.62%) at 83.89 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) CPI (YoY) (Jun) Forecast 2.5%, Previous 2.6% at 14:30. (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 09:30. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 09:30. (USD) JOLTs Job Openings (May) Forecast 7.960M, Previous 8.059M at 10:00. (AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (May) Previous 0.1% at 21:30.