. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold and Silver Drop.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold and Silver Drop.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold and Silver Drop.

11 Jun 2024

Introduction

Gold and silver prices fall as expectations of a US interest rate cut fade. The US Dollar remains strong, putting pressure on precious metals. Investors are watching key US inflation data and the Federal Reserve meeting for direction. Oil prices rise on forecasts of higher summer demand, but could be capped by the Fed’s hawkish stance. Natural gas futures surge on expectations of hot summer weather boosting demand.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price remains on the defensive amid renewed rate jitters, US Dollar demand.

Gold price edges lower, pressured by reduced Fed rate cut bets. Political uncertainty in Europe and geopolitical risks should limit the downside.Traders also seem hesitant ahead of the US CPI and FOMC decision on Wednesday.Gold price (XAU/USD) meets with a fresh supply during the early European trading hours on Tuesday and erodes a part of the previous day’s modest recovery gains from the $2,287 area or over a one-month low touched in reaction to the upbeat US jobs data. Investors have been scaling back their bets for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated and assists the US Dollar (USD) to stand tall near a multi-week high touched on Monday, which, in turn, is seen undermining demand for the precious metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2330.5554 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2338.7008 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2313.5611 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2332.5101 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2354.9984 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2343.5602 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 44.5604 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 13.3103 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2417.4629 R2 : 2458.2274
  • S1 : 2285.4964 S2 : 2244.7319

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2321.60 | Take Profit : 2279.39 | Stop Loss : 2355.70

SILVER

XAG/USD sees more downside below $29 ahead of US Inflation, Fed policy.

Silver price remains under pressure near $29.00 with a focus on the US CPI and the Fed policy outcome.The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates steady with hawkish guidance.Investors see the Fed cutting interest rates only once this year.Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its downside to near the crucial support of $29.00 in Tuesday’s European session. The white metal weakens as the US Dollar (USD) and bond yields have performed strongly across the board due to a sharp decline in market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting. Investors see the Fed lowering its key borrowing rates only once this year as fears for price pressures remaining persistent have deepened. The US Dollar Index (DXY) turns sideways after printing a fresh four-week high near 105.40. 10-year US Treasury yields have edged down to 4.44% in the London session but hold its strong recovery from 4.27%.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 29.63 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 29.94 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 30.14 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 29.82 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 29.96 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 30.65 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 40.92 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 21.8 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 30.38 R2 : 32.08
  • S1 : 28.57 S2 : 26.87

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 29.83 | Take Profit : 28.39 | Stop Loss : 30.75

CRUDE OIL

WTI reaches to near $77.50 due to expectations of increased summer demand.

WTI price gained ground due to rising expectations of increased fuel demand this summer.Goldman Sachs analysts anticipated strong summer transport demand will lead to a third-quarter Oil market deficit of 1.3 million barrels per day.Crude Oil prices may struggle as the Fed expects to keep higher rates for longer.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price hovers around $77.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Crude oil prices are bolstered by expectations of increased fuel demand this summer. According to Reuters, analysts at the energy consulting firm Gelber and Associates noted, “Futures are higher as expectations of summer demand are supportive of prices despite the broader macro landscape remaining less optimistic than weeks previous.” Additionally, concerns over a potential Oil supply surplus have increased as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided to gradually unwind voluntary cuts from eight member countries starting in October.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 76.6725 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.3672 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.8318 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 76.2542 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.4628 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.4916 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 49.7505 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 57.0990 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.3846 R2 : 81.6628
  • S1 : 76.2468 S2 : 74.9686

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 76.10 | Take Profit : 78.53 | Stop Loss : 74.63

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Surge on Bullish Technical Breakout.

Natural gas futures rise above 200-day moving average, setting up a challenge to the $3.159 high from May.Weather forecasts predict historically hot June, supporting natural gas price rally despite bearish inventory report.The driving force behind this surge is the expectation of increased demand due to forecasts of hot temperatures through the end of June.The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed utilities injected 98 Bcf into storage for the week ending May 31, slightly below the five-year average increase of 103 Bcf. Given the anticipated hot weather and its impact on demand, the outlook for the natural gas market remains bullish. Production constraints and strong summer cooling demand are likely to tighten supplies, supporting higher prices in the near term.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.6538 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.5231 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.2734 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.5820 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.5619 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.1316 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 68.8607 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 75.03 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.7525 R2 : 3.0175
  • S1 : 1.8945 S2 : 1.6295

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.81 | Take Profit : 3.07 | Stop Loss : 2.67

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.24%) at 2305.00, Silver down (1.86%) at 29.17, Palladium down (1.75%) at 892.71, Platinum down (0.72%) at 955.68, Brent Crude Oil down (0.43%) at 81.54, WTI Crude Oil down (0.71%) at 77.65 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) Average Earning Index + Bonus (Apr) Forecast 5.7%, Previous –5.7% at 02:00. (CAD) Building Permits (MoM) (Apr) Forecast 4.9% Previous –11.7% at 08:30. (CNY) CPI (MoM) (May) Previous 0.1% at 21:30. (CNY) PPI (YoY) (May) Forecast –1.5%, Previous –2.5% at 21:30.