. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold and Silver Resilient, WTI Surges.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold and Silver Resilient, WTI Surges.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold and Silver Resilient, WTI Surges.

10 May 2024

Introduction

Gold prices show resilience, climbing for a second day despite hawkish tones from the Fed. Analysts speculate a weakening labor market could prompt rate cuts sooner. Geopolitical tensions also buoy sentiment. Yet, hawkish Fed rhetoric and a stronger USD pose risks. Meanwhile, Silver advances for the third day on dovish Fed sentiment. WTI surges above $79.20 driven by China’s demand optimism and Middle East tensions. Natural Gas futures hit 14-week highs fueled by supply-demand dynamics.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price attracts some buyers despite hawkish Fedspeak.

Gold price edges higher for the second consecutive day on Friday. Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum on Friday despite the modest rebound in US Dollar (USD). The yellow metal edges higher as many economists expect a weakening labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates sooner than currently expected to stimulate economic growth. Furthermore, the renewed geopolitical concerns are likely to be a positive factor for gold’s value on the market. However, the hawkish US Fed talks on the interest rate, and the stronger US dollar (USD) might weigh on gold prices. Gold traders will keep an eye on the first reading of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May, along with the speeches from the Fed’s Bowman, Goolsbee, and Barr. Next week, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be in the spotlight.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2330.5829 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2322.0400 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2264.1036 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2320.5780 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2336.6560 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2266.7891 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 61.8102 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 100 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2392.8718 R2 : 2440.8082
  • S1 : 2237.6882 S2 : 2189.7518

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2357.72 | Take Profit : 2390.56 | Stop Loss : 2336.82

SILVER

Silver rises for third straight day.

Silver price edged higher after the weak labor data initiated the dovish sentiment surrounding the Fed.Silver price extends its gains for the third consecutive session, trading around $28.50 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Friday. The increase in the value of the grey metal can be attributed to the latest employment data from the United States (US), which supports a more accommodative monetary stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Unexpectedly, US Initial Jobless Claims surged to over 8-month highs, signaling a weakening labor market and potentially providing the Fed with room to commence its easing cycle sooner rather than later. Lower interest rates typically enhance the attractiveness of non-yielding assets such as Silver. On the geopolitical front, Silver experienced heightened safe-haven demand amidst a deadlock in ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 27.88 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 27.53 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 27.31 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 27.74 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 27.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 27.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 75.2 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 100 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 28.88 R2 : 29.76
  • S1 : 27.73 S2 : 26.57

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 28.05 | Take Profit : 29.00 | Stop Loss : 27.50

CRUDE OIL

WTI gains ground above $79.20 amid rising demand optimism in China.

WTI prices gain momentum to one-week highs near $79.30 on Friday. Rising demand optimism in China and the ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions lift WTI prices. The Fed’s hawkish stance might limit the upside of USD-denominated oil. Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $79.30 on Friday. The black gold edges higher amid optimism about rising demand in China and the US, the world’s two biggest crude-consuming nations. China’s crude oil imports rose by 5.45% in April compared to the same month last year, indicating an encouraging improvement in demand, China’s official statistics showed on Thursday. The improved China Trade Balance data added to the upside momentum for WTI prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 79.8820 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 80.9358 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.0505 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 79.5725 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 81.5481 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.9271 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 41.3436 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 97.32 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 85.9330 R2 : 87.5706
  • S1 : 80.6316 S2 : 78.9940

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 80.55 | Take Profit : 78.05 | Stop Loss : 82.49

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Finding New Highs.

Natural gas prices are approaching a 14-week high, driven by a combination of supply and demand factors that are beginning to trim the storage surplus. U.S. natural gas futures post solid gains after a weekly inventory report shows a slight reduction in the storage surplus against expectations of a small increase, with the market betting on a weather-driven pickup in demand. Several factors are contributing to this bullish outlook, including increased Liquefied Natural Gas (OTC:LNGLF) (LNG) feed gas demand and the impacts of production curtailments and deferred well completions. LNG demand has been a major influence on natural gas prices this year, with prices fluctuating in response to flows from the Freeport LNG terminal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.9989 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.9066 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8716 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.9654 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.8508 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.7784 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 68.9640 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 88.74 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8667 R2 : 1.9349
  • S1 : 1.6459 S2 : 1.5777

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.22 | Take Profit : 2.49 | Stop Loss : 2.07

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (1.04%) at 2369.59, Silver up (1.2%) at 28.66, Palladium up (1.81%) at 984.49, Platinum up (1.54%) at 993.32, Brent Crude Oil up (0.04%) at 84.12, WTI Crude Oil up (0.08%) at 79.58 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) Forecast 0.4%, Previous –0.3% at 11:30. (GBP) Industrial Production (MoM) Forecast –0.5%, Previous 1.1% at 11:30. (GBP) GDP (YoY) (Q1) Forecast 0.0%, Previous –0.2% at 11:30. (GBP) Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar) Forecast –0.5%, Previous 1.2% at 11:30. (GBP) GDP (MoM) (Mar) Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.1% at 11:30. (EUR) ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meetings at 17:00. (CAD) Employment Change (Apr) Forecast 20.9K, Previous –2.2K at 18:00.