. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold and Silver Rise on Fed Dovishness.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold and Silver Rise on Fed Dovishness.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold and Silver Rise on Fed Dovishness.

03 Jul 2024

Introduction

Gold prices edge higher as the dollar weakens on Fed rate cut hopes. Silver and WTI also gain, influenced by dovish Fed remarks and geopolitical tensions. Natural gas futures decline amid rising production and cooler forecasts, tempering the bullish outlook.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold prices gain some ground as dollar falls on rate cut hopes.

Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Wednesday, seeing some relief as the dollar retreated on some positive comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. But the yellow metal still remained within a trading range established through most of June, as anticipation of more cues on U.S. interest rates kept traders biased towards the dollar.Gold rises, but payrolls, Fed cues limit gains Strength in gold came tracking an overnight decline in the dollar, after the Fed’s Powell flagged progress towards bringing down inflation. But Powell also warned that the central bank still needed more confidence to begin trimming interest rates. This notion, coupled with anticipation of more key cues on the U.S. economy, kept gains in gold and other metals limited. Focus is now on the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting, due later on Wednesday, as well as addresses by other Fed officials in the coming days.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2329.6369 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2330.2840 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2320.1350 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2329.0231 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2325.8798 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2337.9271 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 53.0760 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 55.2510 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2372.1823 R2 : 2395.9711
  • S1 : 2295.1711 S2 : 2271.3823

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2336.22 | Take Profit : 2370.31 | Stop Loss : 2315.11

SILVER

XAG/USD holds ground above $29.50 as Fed’s Powell turns dovish.

Silver price appreciates as Fed Chair Jerome Powell believes that the central bank is getting back on the dis-inflationary path.The non-yielding Silver might gain ground as recent US inflation data raised the expectations of the Fed reducing rates in 2024.Safe-haven Silver might attract investors as Israeli forces conducted airstrikes across the southern Gaza Strip on Tuesday.Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its winning streak for the fifth day, trading around $29.70 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Wednesday. The price of silver is possibly bolstered by investor reaction to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s somewhat dovish remarks.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 29.49 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 29.40 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 29.05 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 29.42 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 29.22 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 29.41 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 61.21 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 97.72 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 30.08 R2 : 31.53
  • S1 : 28.90 S2 : 27.65

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 29.72 | Take Profit : 31.08 | Stop Loss : 28.90

CRUDE OIL

WTI Price Consolidates above mid-$82.00s, bullish potential seems intact.

WTI struggles to gain any meaningful traction, though the bias seems tilted in favor of bulls.Escalating geopolitical tensions fuels supply concerns and acts as a tailwind for the commodity.The technical setup also suggests that the path of least resistance for Oil prices is to the upside.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices lack any firm intraday direction on Wednesday and oscillate in a narrow band during the Asian session. The commodity currently trades around the $82.65-$82.70 region, nearly unchanged for the day and remains well within striking distance of its highest level since April 26 touched the previous day. Investors remain concerned that a wider conflict in the Middle East could disrupt supplies from the key Oil-producing countries. This, along with A very strong start to the hurricane season in the US, turn out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the black liquid. That said, concerns over a slowdown in global economic growth might hold back bulls from placing fresh bets and cap the upside for Crude Oil prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 81.8137 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.7374 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.9804 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 81.7844 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.1691 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.2998 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 61.9460 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 85.0400 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 82.7869 R2 : 85.2028
  • S1 : 74.9658 S2 : 72.5499

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 82.31 | Take Profit : 84.40 | Stop Loss : 81.06

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Plummet as Production Soars.

Natural Gas Futures Slide on Production Gains and Cooler Forecasts-natural gas futures continued their downward trend , pressured by rising production and cooler mid-July forecasts. These factors are contributing to a loosening of market fundamentals.US natural gas inventories remain significantly above normal, despite recent heatwaves driving higher electricity demand.The persistent high inventory levels are testing the bullish case for substantial inventory reductions this summer.Based on the current production levels, inventory surplus, and cooling weather forecasts, the short-term outlook for natural gas appears bearish.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.5355 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.5824 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4480 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.5797 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.6934 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4312 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 39.6977 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 4.5960 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.8694 R2 : 3.0200
  • S1 : 2.3820 S2 : 2.2314

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2.56 | Take Profit : 2.32 | Stop Loss : 2.75

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.62%) at 2343.62, Silver up (1.74%) at 30.03, Palladium up (0.94%) at 1024.58, Platinum up (0.41%) at 994.76, Brent Crude Oil down (0.22%) at 86.35, WTI Crude Oil down (0.33%) at 82.86 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) Service PMI (Jun) Forecast 51.2, Previous 53.0 at 04:00. (USD) ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) Forecast 163K, Previous 152K at 08:15. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 234K, Previous 233K at 08:30. (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) Forecast 52.6, Previous 53.8 at10:00. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:15. (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes at 14:00.