. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold and Silver Steady.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold and Silver Steady.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold and Silver Steady.

19 Jun 2024

Introduction

Gold and silver hold steady despite mixed signals. While hopes of a rate cut by the Fed lift prices, the Fed’s hawkish stance and rising bond yields create headwinds. Oil surges on rate cut bets and geopolitical tensions, while natural gas benefits from strong demand in the AI sector.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price remains capped as yields gain ground on Fed’s hawkish narrative.

Gold price is seen consolidating near the top end of a short-term trading range. Fed rate-cut uncertainty holds back traders from placing fresh directional bets.The USD is undermined by Tuesday’s weaker US Retail Sales and lends support.Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s bounce from the vicinity of the $2,300 mark and oscillates in a narrow band during the European session on Wednesday. The precious metal remains capped in a familiar trading range held over the past one-and-half-week or so as traders seek clarity about the likely timing when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates before placing fresh directional bets. The US central bank adopted a more hawkish stance at the end of the June policy meeting and forecasted only one rate cut this year. The markets, however, are still pricing in the possibility of two rate cuts in 2024 amid signs of easing inflation in the US. Moreover, weaker US Retail Sales data released on Tuesday pointed to signs of exhaustion among US consumers and lifted bets for the first Fed rate cut in September and another in December.

Technical   Overview With Chart :|

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2326.9930 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2332.4885 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2315.9445 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2323.1966 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2332.3330 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2343.6707 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 46.9822 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 38.7996 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2417.4629 R2 : 2458.2274
  • S1 : 2285.4964 S2 : 2244.7319

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2339.46 | Take Profit : 2294.01 | Stop Loss : 2371.93

SILVER

XAG/USD manages firm footing above $29 as Fed early rate-cut bets surge.

Silver price holds the $29.00 support as investors see the Fed returning to policy-normalization from September.US bond yields rebound as Fed officials continue to advocate only one rate cut this year.Investors shift focus to preliminary US S&P Global PMIs for June.Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to hold the crucial support of $29.00 in Wednesday’s early European session. The white metal is consistently seeing buying interest near above-mentioned support amid growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 29.36 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 29.33 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 29.99 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 29.36 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 29.33 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 29.99 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 49.73 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 95.18 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 30.20 R2 : 31.64
  • S1 : 28.46 S2 : 26.98

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 29.94 | Take Profit : 28.42 | Stop Loss : 31.01

CRUDE OIL

WTI posts fresh six-week high near $81.00 on geopolitical uncertainty and firm Fed rate-cut bets.

WTI price trades close to a six-week high on multiple tailwinds.Firm Fed rate-cut prospects improve the Oil demand outlook.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe have raised supply concerns.West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, hold gains near fresh six-week high near $80.70 in Wednesday’s Asian session. The Oil price strengthens due to an improvement in expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting and deepening tensions in the Middle East and Europe.The high possibility of early rate cuts by the Fed is a favorable situation for the Oil price, as it improves sentiment for the global economic outlook.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 79.1227 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.5360 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.0437 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.5394 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.7237 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.7153 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 60.9199 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 97.9687 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.3846 R2 : 81.6628
  • S1 : 76.2468 S2 : 74.9686

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 79.33 | Take Profit : 81.65 | Stop Loss : 77.96

NATURAL GAS

Natural gas prices surge as artificial intelligence boom raises demand.

Natural gas prices have surged over the past three months because of optimistic demand driven by a boom in AI consumption and its crucial role in the renewable energy transition.Earlier The bearish sentiment in the futures market was further supported by the EIA’s storage report, which revealed comfortable storage levels exceeding last year’s figures and the five-year average.Traders should closely monitor storage reports, pipeline developments, and weather updates to navigate the ongoing tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.7680 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.6579 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.3913 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.8069 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.6511 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.2612 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 61.4575 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 69.2566 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.7527 R2 : 3.0177
  • S1 : 1.8947 S2 : 1.6297

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 2.91 | Take Profit : 3.13 | Stop Loss : 2.77

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.13%) at 2332.50, Silver up (0.07%) at 29.54, Palladium up (2.1%) at 905.65, Platinum up (1.21%) at 982.26, Brent Crude Oil down (0.26%) at 85.07, WTI Crude Oil down (0.31%) at 80.46 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) CPI (YoY) (May) Forecast 2.0%, Previous 2.3% at 02:00. (CHF) SNB Monetary Policy Statement at 03:30. (NZD) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) Forecast 0.1%, Previous –0.1% at 18:45. (CNY) PBoC Loan Prime Rate Forecast 3.45%, Previous 3.45% at 21:15.