. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold Climbs, Silver Nears $30.50.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Climbs, Silver Nears $30.50.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Climbs, Silver Nears $30.50.

20 Jun 2024

Introduction

Geopolitical tensions surge as threats from Israel and a Russia-North Korea alliance raise concerns. This sparks a rise in gold (XAU/USD) prices, potentially breaking a recent slump. Silver (XAG/USD) also climbs, nearing $30.50. Oil prices hold steady despite a surprise inventory build in the US, supported by geopolitical jitters and OPEC’s bullish demand forecast. Natural gas futures remain focused on weather events, with a short-term bearish outlook.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold gains on rising geopolitical threat levels.

Gold demand increases from investors bundling into safety as geopolitical risks escalate. Israel’s threat of “all-out war” with Lebanon and Russia’s signing of an alliance with North Korea are intensifying concerns. XAU/USD recovers and reaches a cross-roads level, bringing its ongoing bearish pattern into question. Gold (XAU/USD) price awakens from its slumber on Thursday, gaining a sprightly half a percent to trade in the $2,340s, and finds itself at a technical crossroads that could define the directional trend for the rest of the summer. The market mood is placid going into the European session, with Asian bourses showing either mild gains or tepid losses. That said, Gold sees gains from safety demand as the geopolitical global threat level lights up another bar and global powers move their chess pieces across the world’s strategic chequered board.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2327.4505 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2332.1668 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2316.4507 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2318.5141 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2332.3264 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2342.8120 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 50.1177 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 42.9904 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2417.4629 R2 : 2458.2274
  • S1 : 2285.4964 S2 : 2244.7319

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2330.74 | Take Profit : 2362.02 | Stop Loss : 2313.89

SILVER

XAG/USD climbs more than 0.50%, eyes $30.50.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to data. Silver trades at $30.19 per troy ounce.The grey metal remains neutral to upward bias, despite diving from year-to-date (YTD) highs reached at $32.51, below the $30.00 figure. Silver seems to have bottomed after hitting a monthly low of $28.66; since then, XAG/USD edged higher, and it’s shy of challenging the $30.50 mark.The most likely scenario would be a bullish continuation if XAG/USD buyers reclaim $30.50, which could reignite Silver’s rally and pave the way for further upside. This week, investors will focus on the preliminary US S&P Global PMIs data for June, which will be published on Friday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 29.69 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 29.59 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 29.75 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 29.56 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 29.44 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 29.88 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 58.68 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 97.46 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 30.56 R2 : 31.75
  • S1 : 29.27 S2 : 27.91

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 29.86 | Take Profit : 31.49 | Stop Loss : 28.83

CRUDE OIL

Crude Oil Underpinned by Geopolitical Tensions, US Stock Build.

Oil prices steady as market weighs U.S. inventory build and war concerns.Unexpected U.S. crude stock increase contrasts with analysts’ predictions of a draw.OPEC maintains forecast for strong oil demand growth, raising economic growth estimates. U.S. crude stocks increased by 2.264 million barrels for the week ending June 14, according to figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Despite these geopolitical tensions, the market has also had to contend with mixed economic signals. Given the current geopolitical tensions and the supportive demand outlook from OPEC, oil prices are likely to remain well-supported in the near term.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 79.4119 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.7445 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.1099 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 79.0484 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.9127 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.6184 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 57.4772 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 93.1479 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.3846 R2 : 81.6628
  • S1 : 76.2468 S2 : 74.9686

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 79.26 | Take Profit : 81.63 | Stop Loss : 77.79

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas News Traders Focus on Weather Forecasts for Price Guidance.

As natural gas futures resume trading on Thursday, market participants will be closely monitoring the ongoing heatwave in the United States and a Tropical Storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Despite yesterday’s rally due to heatwave concerns, the market sees this as a short-covering rally with heat already priced in for weeks. Professional traders sell nearby contracts and buy deferred ones, preparing for potential winter shortages caused by sustained heat demand. Given the current conditions, the market is likely to see a short-term bearish outlook.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.7733 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.6712 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.4072 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.8232 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.6597 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.2831 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 59.2136 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 72.5731 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.7527 R2 : 3.0177
  • S1 : 1.8947 S2 : 1.6297

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2.82 | Take Profit : 2.66 | Stop Loss : 2.98

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.21%) at 2333.21, Silver up (1.6%) at 30.19, Palladium up (0.73%) at 909.64, Platinum up (0.85%) at 984.28, Brent Crude Oil down (0.01%) at 85.21, WTI Crude Oil up (0.05%) at 80.64 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CHF) SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q2) Forecast 1.50%, Previous 1.50% at 03:30. (CHF) SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 03:30. (GBP) BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun) Forecast 5.25%, Previous 5.25% at 07:00. (GBP) BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 07:00. (USD) Building Permits (May) Forecast 1.450M, Previous 1.440M at 08:30. (CAD) New Housing Price Index (MoM) (May) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.2% at 08:30. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 235K, Previous 242K at 08:30. (USD) Crude Oil Inventories Forecast –2.800M, Previous 3.730M at 11:00.