. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold, Copper, Oil, Natural Gas.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Copper, Oil, Natural Gas.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Copper, Oil, Natural Gas.

12 Feb 2024

Introduction

Gold prices stagnate around $2,020, grappling with conflicting signals amid hawkish Fed sentiments and positive market sentiment. The USD’s defensive stance, driven by Fed rate cut uncertainty, offers support. Traders eagerly await Tuesday’s US CPI data for market direction. Meanwhile, Copper faces a downturn on the discovery of a sizable deposit in Zambia, signaling potential oversupply. Oil prices dip as Israel concludes Gaza strikes, alleviating Middle East supply concerns. Natural gas experiences a three-year low due to increased production and policy uncertainties, reflecting a bearish market sentiment.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price flat-lines amid mixed cues, look to US CPI on Tuesday for fresh impetus.

Gold price struggles to lure buyers amid hawkish Fed expectations and the upbeat market mood. The Fed rate cut uncertainty keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and lends support to the metal. Traders await Tuesday’s US consumer inflation figures before placing directional bets. Gold price (XAU/USD) kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading range, just above the $2,020 level during the Asian session. The recent surge in the US Treasury bond yields, bolstered by the upbeat US macro data and hawkish rhetoric from several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, along with a generally positive risk tone, act as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal. The downside, however, remains cushioned in the wake of a softer US Dollar (USD), which tends to benefit the USD-denominated commodity.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2030.6821 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2031.6503 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2024.8167 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2034.7780 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2028.4637 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2033.5879 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.5022 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 31.6536 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
  • S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 2022.73 | Take Profit: 2001.46 | Stop Loss: 2036.41

COPPER

Copper sinks on discovery of large deposit in Zambia.

Copper prices fell on Monday, extending losses from the prior session on fears of a potential increase in global supplies. KoBold Metals, a start-up backed by Microsoft founder Bill Gates, said it had discovered a huge copper deposit in Zambia, which could potentially form one of the largest mines in the world. The discovery points to a potential increase in copper supplies over the coming years- heralding more pressure on prices of the red metal, which usually benefits from tighter market conditions. Copper was already nursing steep losses in 2024 amid persistent concerns over slowing demand in top importer China.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.70 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 3.76 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.68 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.70 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 3.76 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 31.17 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 11.02 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.71 R2 : 3.79
  • S1 : 3.65 S2 : 3.57

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 3.68 | Take Profit: 3.62 | Stop Loss: 3.72

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil starts week lower after Israel says ‘concluded’ Gaza strikes.

Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Monday after Israel said it had “concluded” a series of strikes in southern Gaza, slightly easing concerns about supply from the Middle East. Geo-political risks including a feared broadening of the Israel-Palestinian conflict across the region and potential oil supply disruption in the Middle East pushed prices up by about 6% last week. While supply concerns in the Middle East remained relatively heightened, news from the U.S. eased some worries.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.5217 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.0462 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.9903 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 80.0912 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.1266 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.4982 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.8955 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 69.6037 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.3603 R2 : 85.5650
  • S1 : 76.2230 S2 : 74.0183

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 80.96 | Take Profit: 83.62 | Stop Loss: 79.50

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Dropped As Production Surged And Mild Winter Weather Depressed Demand.

Surging Production, Diminished Winter Demand Drive Price Fall Biden’s LNG Policy Pause Stirs Market Uncertainty Supply Outstrips Demand, Fueling Bearish Market Sentiment. Last week, the natural gas market experienced several key developments that led to a significant price drop, reaching a three-year low. This movement in the market was influenced by a mix of factors ranging from increased production to policy changes.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.1188 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.2720 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4602 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.1351 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.3302 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4633 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 26.8165 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 3.8996 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.0654 R2 : 3.3340
  • S1 : 2.1960 S2 : 1.9274

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.94 | Take Profit: 1.76 | Stop Loss: 2.07

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.01%) at 2023.93, Silver is up (0.87%) at 22.79, Palladium is up (0.36%) at 862.66, Platinum is up (0.28%) at 877.78, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.37%) at 81.89, WTI Crude Oil down (0.40%) at 76.53 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 06:00. (GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 23:30.