. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold, Copper, WTI rise.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Copper, WTI rise.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Copper, WTI rise.

18 Mar 2024

Introduction

Gold prices linger below $2,150 as reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut weigh on sentiment. The precious metal hits a one-week low amidst concerns that the Fed may delay rate cuts due to persistent US inflation. Geopolitical tensions offer some support ahead of the FOMC decision. Additionally, copper prices retreat after mixed Chinese data, while WTI oil climbs amid supply concerns driven by geopolitical risks.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price remains on the defensive below $2,150 amid reduced Fed rate cut bets.

Gold price remains depressed for the third successive day and drops to over one-week trough. Expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer continue to undermine the XAU/USD. Geopolitical risks could help limit losses ahead of the key FOMC policy decision on Wednesday. Gold price (XAU/USD) remains under some selling pressure for the third successive day on Monday – also marking the fourth day of a negative move in the previous five – and drops to over a one-week low. The precious metal maintains its offered tone below the $2,1,50 level through the early part of the European session amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may delay interest rate cuts in the wake of still-sticky inflation in the US. The outlook, meanwhile, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which are seen acting as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2146.0112 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2116.3547 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2072.7005 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2159.8355 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2102.1862 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2056.2834 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 66.0657 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 77.2106 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2156.95 | Take Profit: 2172.14 | Stop Loss: 2147.64

COPPER

Copper prices retreat after mixed Chinese data.

One-month U.S. copper futures fell 0.3% to $4.1092 a pound on Monday. While both instruments weakened, they remained in sight of 11-month highs hit last week, after media reports showed that China’s biggest copper smelters were planning production cuts. Such a scenario presents a supply shortage of refined copper and was a key driver of copper’s rally. But this rally somewhat cooled on Monday following mixed economic data from China. While industrial production rose more than expected in the January-February period, retail sales missed expectations, while unemployment hit a five-month high. The mixed data raised concerns over weak economic growth in the world’s biggest copper importer, which could hurt its appetite for the red metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.05 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.01 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.93 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.05 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.98 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.90 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 69.28 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 43.54 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.12 R2 : 4.21
  • S1 : 4.01 S2 : 3.91

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 3.99 | Take Profit: 4.10 | Stop Loss: 3.92

CRUDE OIL

WTI continues its winning streak amid heightened concerns over supply, climbing to $80.90.

WTI price appreciation following Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Ukraine has declared not to extend a five-year agreement with Russia’s Gazprom..West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price continues its upward trajectory, reaching around $80.90 per barrel during the Asian trading hours on Monday. Crude oil prices receive positive momentum driven by concerns over supply disruptions stemming from heightened geopolitical risks. Additionally, investors are eagerly anticipating interest rate decisions from major central banks this week. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to maintain its current elevated policy rates. According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in June and July stands at 56.3% and 75.2%, respectively. The resultant higher borrowing costs are dampening oil demand, consequently exerting downward pressure on Crude oil prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 79.7941 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.9034 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 77.4248 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 79.3929 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.7618 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 76.5301 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 64.6454 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 92.3830 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
  • S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 81.51 | Take Profit: 83.67 | Stop Loss: 80.35

NATURAL GAS

Milder weather may extend a downward trend in natural gas futures.

Last week, U.S. natural gas futures saw a notable decrease, dropping over 8% for a second consecutive weekly loss. The downturn was primarily driven by forecasts for milder weather, which is expected to reduce heating demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration noted a larger-than-expected withdrawal of 9 billion cubic feet (bcf) from storage for the week ending March 8. Although this surpassed analysts’ forecasts, the market’s subdued response indicates that additional factors are influencing pricing. Considering the current weather forecasts, increased rig counts, and the recent mild reaction to storage withdrawals, a bearish outlook prevails for the short-term natural gas market. However, with anticipated adjustments in production and the initiation of new LNG projects, the latter part of 2024 holds a bullish potential.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7342 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7886 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.0099 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7544 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7675 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.1022 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 43.7773 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 23.6111 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.76 | Take Profit: 1.54 | Stop Loss: 1.94

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.2%) at 2151.33, Silver is down (0.36%) at 25.07, Palladium is down (1.03%) at 1069.50, Platinum is down (1.29%) at 922.39, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.43%) at 85.71, WTI Crude Oil up (0.69%) at 81.12 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) CPI (YoY) (Feb) Forecast 2.6%, Previous 2.8% at 06:00. (JPY) BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 22:30. (AUD) RBA Interest Rate Decision (Mar) Forecast 4.35%, Previous 4.35% at 23:30. (AUD) RBA Rate Statement 23:30.