. Daily Commodity Analysis - gold, copper, WTI turmoil.

Daily Commodity Analysis – gold, copper, WTI turmoil.

Daily Commodity Analysis – gold, copper, WTI turmoil.

01 Mar 2024

Introduction

Gold prices retreat from a one-month peak in the European session amid elevated US bond yields and prevailing risk-on sentiment. The downside is tempered by expectations of a delayed Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, copper faces mixed signals from China’s PMI, and WTI crude consolidates around $78, eyeing a second consecutive week of gains. U.S. natural gas settles lower despite a larger-than-expected storage draw, as attention shifts to the European gas market’s growing appeal.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price eases from one-month top, corrective decline is likely to remain limited.

Gold price ticks lower amid elevated US bond yields and the prevalent risk-on mood. The downside seems limited amid bets for an imminent Fed rate cut later this year. Thursday’s sustained breakout through the $2,040-2,042 hurdle favors bullish traders. Gold price (XAU/USD) ticks lower following an intraday uptick back closer to a one-month top touched the previous day and slid closer to the $2,042-2,040 resistance break point during the early European session on Friday. Growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will wait until the June policy meeting before lowering borrowing costs remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. This, along with the prevalent risk-on environment, is a key factor exerting some downward pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2031.6563 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2028.4527 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2024.5177 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2030.6494 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2024.0745 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2033.2891 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 56.0230 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 86.6969 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3865 R2 : 2081.5568
  • S1 : 2000.3268 S2 : 1981.1565

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2037.34 | Take Profit: 2056.76 | Stop Loss: 2027.63

COPPER

Copper muted after mixed China PMI.

Among industrial metals, copper prices fell slightly on Friday following mixed economic signals from top importer China. Copper futures expiring in May edged lower to $3.8453 a pound. Official purchasing managers index data from China showed the country’s manufacturing sector shrank for a fifth straight month in February- a trend that bodes poorly for copper demand. However non-manufacturing activity was supported by the Lunar New Year holiday, while a private survey showed expansion in the manufacturing sector.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.83 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 3.84 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.82 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 3.84 | Negative Crossover |
  • MA 50 : 3.78 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 43.31 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 21.57 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.85 R2 : 3.93
  • S1 : 3.79 S2 : 3.69

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 3.78 | Take Profit: 3.69 | Stop Loss: 3.84

CRUDE OIL

WTI consolidates around $78.00, and remains on track to post the second straight week of gains.

WTI edges higher on Friday, though the intraday uptick lacks bullish conviction. Mixed demand-supply cues hold back traders from placing fresh directional bets. Acceptance above the 200-day SMA supports prospects for further near-term gains. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices attracted some buying near a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) during the Asian session on Friday and for now, seem to have snapped a two-day losing streak. The commodity currently trades just above the $78.00/barrel mark, though remains well below a one-month high touched on Wednesday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 77.9171 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.2534 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 76.2420 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.0311 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.1047 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 75.0581 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 56.4303 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 64.6776 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6461 R2 : 81.6155
  • S1 : 73.2705 S2 : 71.3011

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 79.10 | Take Profit: 82.26 | Stop Loss: 77.51

NATURAL GAS

Bigger-Than-Expected Storage Draw Insufficient to Lift U.S. Natural Gas.

Natural gas futures settle lower in volatile trade focused on double-edged storage data. The EIA reported a 96-Bcf withdrawal from gas storage for last week, bigger than the 91-Bcf estimate in a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts, but below average for the time of year. The price spiked more than 3% following the release, only to settle back into the red. This steadiness is due to growing interest in the European gas market, especially from Asian countries, as recent price drops to multi-year lows have attracted a broader range of traders.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7919 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.8796 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.1506 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7545 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.8249 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.2819 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.7985 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 67.8982 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2086 R2 : 2.3904
  • S1 : 1.6204 S2 : 1.4386

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.75 | Take Profit: 2.09 | Stop Loss: 1.58

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.2%) at 2039.78, Silver is down (0.59%) at 22.51, Palladium is down (0.95%) at 935.56, Platinum is down (0.31%) at 871.83, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.10%) at 81.98, WTI Crude Oil down (0.05%) at 78.22 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 05:35. (CNY) Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Actual 49.1, Forecast 49.1, Previous 49.2 at 07:00. (EUR) German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Forecast 42.3, Previous 45.5 at 14:25. (EUR) CPI (YoY) (Feb) Forecast 2.5%, Previous 2.8% at 15:30. (USD) Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Forecast 51.5, Previous 50.7 at 20:30. (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Forecast 49.5, Previous 49.1 at 20:30.